Daily Papers

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by 12% compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

Test-time scaling uses extra test-time compute to improve performance, such as letting language models reason longer when solving a problem. As models keep the entire reasoning trace in memory via full attention, hard tasks that need long thinking can be prohibitively expensive. However, we find most intermediate reasoning tokens lose importance as the model continues reasoning. This calls into question whether retaining them is worth the cost. Based on this insight, we propose Prefix Sliding, which discards tokens during reasoning that are not part of the prefix or the window of the last few thousand tokens. The prefix has key instructions and tools available to the model, while the most recent tokens are the current reasoning the model is working on. This caps the total memory requirement regardless of how long the model reasons, allowing for efficient long-horizon test-time scaling. Without training, Prefix Sliding can make existing models 3x faster while maintaining performance. Training with Prefix Sliding using reinforcement learning can achieve better performance by enabling scaling to reasoning traces beyond a hundred thousand tokens. Ablations show Prefix Sliding outperforms summarizing intermediate tokens or vanilla sliding window. Our code is at https://github.com/Muennighoff/prefix-sliding

Interactive world models extend video generation from offline clip synthesis toward persistent simulation of interactive virtual worlds, enabling applications in games, robotics, embodied agents, and XR. Achieving stable long-horizon interactive generation, however, remains challenging, as the model must simultaneously preserve scene geometry, dynamic consistency, and camera control while supporting real-time autoregressive generation. Building upon Matrix-Game 3.0, we present Matrix-Game 3.5, as shown in Figure 1, which advances real-time interactive world generation toward geometry-aware and long-horizon consistent simulation through three key improvements. First, we propose a unified geometry-aware memory framework, whose patch-memory and tiled-PRoPE components introduce no additional learnable parameters, combining explicit 3D patch retrieval with projective camera conditioning to enable geometry-consistent camera control and faithful long-horizon scene recall. Second, we introduce a static-dynamic disentangled world representation that separately models static scene geometry and dynamic subjects, preserving both geometric consistency and subject identity throughout long-horizon generation. Third, we develop a two-stage progressive real-time distillation framework that converts a bidirectional diffusion model into a few-step causal generator through Perceptual Flow Matching and curriculum based Self-Rollout DMD, enabling minute-long real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, with a unified training corpus spanning Unreal simulation environments, open-world games, and internet videos, MatrixGame 3.5 achieves strong performance in long-horizon scene recall, precise camera control, subject consistency, prompt-driven world generation, and stable real-time open-world interaction.

We introduce SolarWM, a fully open foundation for building interactive video world models from data preparation through long-horizon inference. Training across heterogeneous data sources and video backbones is challenging: datasets differ in temporal scale, camera geometry, visual quality, motion, and captioning styles, while video generators use distinct representations and architectures. Naive data mixing and model-specific implementations therefore produce inconsistent supervision and make results difficult to reproduce and compare. SolarWM addresses this coupling with a reconfigurable multi-source data engine and a backbone-native adaptation framework. The engine converts 1.43 million canonical clips from 10 datasets into a unified, frame-aligned contract covering visual observations, metric camera geometry, captions, quality metadata, selection decisions, and provenance, while decoupling source processing from mixture construction. Under shared camera-conditioning, training, and inference interfaces, we instantiate four 5B--33B models based on Wan2.2, LTX-2.5, and MiniMax-H3 while preserving their native representations and objectives. A unified three-stage recipe combines bidirectional adaptation, teacher-forced autoregressive initialization, and distribution matching distillation. The resulting causal models enable real-time interaction over rollouts ranging from minutes to hours after being trained on only 5s sequences. By releasing the resulting data, pipeline, recipes, weights, and framework, SolarWM provides a reproducible and extensible foundation for interactive world-model research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being deployed to make decisions that require trading off near-term gains against long-term consequences, yet little is known about how they internally represent or resolve these tradeoffs. In this work, we causally localize an underlying subgraph for temporal preference in a distilled LLM (Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507), identifying mid-to-upper-layer nodes through converging evidence from gradient-based attribution and activation patching. We find that the geometry of time horizon is encoded in the residual stream at the expected localized layers. A behavioral analysis reveals that unintervened LLMs discount the future several times less steeply than humans, yet this preference is unstable across contexts, motivating explicit control rather than implicit reliance on training. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that steering vectors can shift temporal preference. Our work demonstrates how mechanistic interpretability can bring us closer to reliable control over how LLMs plan and reason

In static monitoring cameras, useful contextual information can stretch far beyond the few seconds typical video understanding models might see: subjects may exhibit similar behavior over multiple days, and background objects remain static. Due to power and storage constraints, sampling frequencies are low, often no faster than one frame per second, and sometimes are irregular due to the use of a motion trigger. In order to perform well in this setting, models must be robust to irregular sampling rates. In this paper we propose a method that leverages temporal context from the unlabeled frames of a novel camera to improve performance at that camera. Specifically, we propose an attention-based approach that allows our model, Context R-CNN, to index into a long term memory bank constructed on a per-camera basis and aggregate contextual features from other frames to boost object detection performance on the current frame. We apply Context R-CNN to two settings: (1) species detection using camera traps, and (2) vehicle detection in traffic cameras, showing in both settings that Context R-CNN leads to performance gains over strong baselines. Moreover, we show that increasing the contextual time horizon leads to improved results. When applied to camera trap data from the Snapshot Serengeti dataset, Context R-CNN with context from up to a month of images outperforms a single-frame baseline by 17.9% mAP, and outperforms S3D (a 3d convolution based baseline) by 11.2% mAP.

Recent advancements in meta-learning have enabled the automatic discovery of novel reinforcement learning algorithms parameterized by surrogate objective functions. To improve upon manually designed algorithms, the parameterization of this learned objective function must be expressive enough to represent novel principles of learning (instead of merely recovering already established ones) while still generalizing to a wide range of settings outside of its meta-training distribution. However, existing methods focus on discovering objective functions that, like many widely used objective functions in reinforcement learning, do not take into account the total number of steps allowed for training, or "training horizon". In contrast, humans use a plethora of different learning objectives across the course of acquiring a new ability. For instance, students may alter their studying techniques based on the proximity to exam deadlines and their self-assessed capabilities. This paper contends that ignoring the optimization time horizon significantly restricts the expressive potential of discovered learning algorithms. We propose a simple augmentation to two existing objective discovery approaches that allows the discovered algorithm to dynamically update its objective function throughout the agent's training procedure, resulting in expressive schedules and increased generalization across different training horizons. In the process, we find that commonly used meta-gradient approaches fail to discover such adaptive objective functions while evolution strategies discover highly dynamic learning rules. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a wide range of tasks and analyze the resulting learned algorithms, which we find effectively balance exploration and exploitation by modifying the structure of their learning rules throughout the agent's lifetime.

We present a numerical framework to treat infinite time horizon spatially distributed optimal control problems via the associated canonical system derived by Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The basic idea is to consider the canonical system in two steps. First we perform a bifurcation analysis of canonical steady states using the continuation and bifurcation package pde2path, yielding a number of so called flat and patterned canonical steady states. In a second step we link pde2path to the two point boundary value problem solver TOM to study time dependent canonical paths to steady states having the so called saddle point property. As an example we consider a shallow lake model with diffusion.

Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate. We first timed humans with relevant domain expertise on a combination of RE-Bench, HCAST, and 66 novel shorter tasks. On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has been doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, though the trend may have accelerated in 2024. The increase in AI models' time horizons seems to be primarily driven by greater reliability and ability to adapt to mistakes, combined with better logical reasoning and tool use capabilities. We discuss the limitations of our results -- including their degree of external validity -- and the implications of increased autonomy for dangerous capabilities. If these results generalize to real-world software tasks, extrapolation of this trend predicts that within 5 years, AI systems will be capable of automating many software tasks that currently take humans a month.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The efficacy of diffusion models in generating a spectrum of data modalities, including images, text, and videos, has spurred inquiries into their utility in molecular generation, yielding significant advancements in the field. However, the molecular generation process with diffusion models involves multiple autoregressive steps over a finite time horizon, leading to exposure bias issues inherently. To address the exposure bias issue, we propose a training framework named GapDiff. The core idea of GapDiff is to utilize model-predicted conformations as ground truth probabilistically during training, aiming to mitigate the data distributional disparity between training and inference, thereby enhancing the affinity of generated molecules. We conduct experiments using a 3D molecular generation model on the CrossDocked2020 dataset, and the vina energy and diversity demonstrate the potency of our framework with superior affinity. GapDiff is available at https://github.com/HUGHNew/gapdiff.

Sequential learning with feedback graphs is a natural extension of the multi-armed bandit problem where the problem is equipped with an underlying graph structure that provides additional information - playing an action reveals the losses of all the neighbors of the action. This problem was introduced by mannor2011 and received considerable attention in recent years. It is generally stated in the literature that the minimax regret rate for this problem is of order alpha T, where alpha is the independence number of the graph, and T is the time horizon. However, this is proven only when the number of rounds T is larger than alpha^3, which poses a significant restriction for the usability of this result in large graphs. In this paper, we define a new quantity R^*, called the problem complexity, and prove that the minimax regret is proportional to R^* for any graph and time horizon T. Introducing an intricate exploration strategy, we define the \mainAlgorithm algorithm that achieves the minimax optimal regret bound and becomes the first provably optimal algorithm for this setting, even if T is smaller than alpha^3.

We study the non-stationary dueling bandits problem with K arms, where the time horizon T consists of M stationary segments, each of which is associated with its own preference matrix. The learner repeatedly selects a pair of arms and observes a binary preference between them as feedback. To minimize the accumulated regret, the learner needs to pick the Condorcet winner of each stationary segment as often as possible, despite preference matrices and segment lengths being unknown. We propose the Beat, the, Winner, Reset algorithm and prove a bound on its expected binary weak regret in the stationary case, which tightens the bound of current state-of-art algorithms. We also show a regret bound for the non-stationary case, without requiring knowledge of M or T. We further propose and analyze two meta-algorithms, DETECT for weak regret and Monitored, Dueling, Bandits for strong regret, both based on a detection-window approach that can incorporate any dueling bandit algorithm as a black-box algorithm. Finally, we prove a worst-case lower bound for expected weak regret in the non-stationary case.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) achieves cutting-edge performance on a variety of problems. When it comes to real-world scenarios such as recommendation system and online advertising, however, it is essential to consider the resource consumption of exploration. In practice, there is typically non-zero cost associated with executing a recommendation (arm) in the environment, and hence, the policy should be learned with a fixed exploration cost constraint. It is challenging to learn a global optimal policy directly, since it is a NP-hard problem and significantly complicates the exploration and exploitation trade-off of bandit algorithms. Existing approaches focus on solving the problems by adopting the greedy policy which estimates the expected rewards and costs and uses a greedy selection based on each arm's expected reward/cost ratio using historical observation until the exploration resource is exhausted. However, existing methods are hard to extend to infinite time horizon, since the learning process will be terminated when there is no more resource. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical adaptive contextual bandit method (HATCH) to conduct the policy learning of contextual bandits with a budget constraint. HATCH adopts an adaptive method to allocate the exploration resource based on the remaining resource/time and the estimation of reward distribution among different user contexts. In addition, we utilize full of contextual feature information to find the best personalized recommendation. Finally, in order to prove the theoretical guarantee, we present a regret bound analysis and prove that HATCH achieves a regret bound as low as O(T). The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method on both synthetic data sets and the real-world applications.

In this paper we develop a model of an order-driven market where traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. Agents are assumed to have three components to the expectation of future asset returns, namely-fundamentalist, chartist and noise trader. Furthermore agents differ in the characteristics describing these components, such as time horizon, risk aversion and the weights given to the various components. The model developed here extends a great deal of earlier literature in that the order submissions of agents are determined by utility maximisation, rather than the mechanical unit order size that is commonly assumed. In this way the order flow is better related to the ongoing evolution of the market. For the given market structure we analyze the impact of the three components of the trading strategies on the statistical properties of prices and order flows and observe that it is the chartist strategy that is mainly responsible of the fat tails and clustering in the artificial price data generated by the model. The paper provides further evidence that large price changes are likely to be generated by the presence of large gaps in the book.

RED-2400 is a public benchmark of algorithmically-rejected trading events from a live Solana decentralized-exchange filter stack. I logged the data continuously between 2026-04-10 and 2026-05-02. The benchmark contains 6,659 rejection events linked to 169,122 post-rejection price and liquidity observations and 1,836 graveyard-tracker snapshots. Outcome labels follow the five-tier classification of Kamat (2026c): saved (windowed), saved (early-death), missed, flat, and unclassifiable. Thresholds use the trough-to-reference and peak-to-reference price ratios within a 24-hour window. Most filter-design datasets cover the accept side only. That gap leaves reject-side outcomes unmeasured and biases filter validation. RED-2400 lets researchers replicate filter-precision claims directly. RED-2400 is the first window in a planned dataset series; subsequent windows will extend the time horizon and enable regime-stratified analysis.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

We consider the linear contextual multi-class multi-period packing problem (LMMP) where the goal is to pack items such that the total vector of consumption is below a given budget vector and the total value is as large as possible. We consider the setting where the reward and the consumption vector associated with each action is a class-dependent linear function of the context, and the decision-maker receives bandit feedback. LMMP includes linear contextual bandits with knapsacks and online revenue management as special cases. We establish a new estimator which guarantees a faster convergence rate, and consequently, a lower regret in such problems. We propose a bandit policy that is a closed-form function of said estimated parameters. When the contexts are non-degenerate, the regret of the proposed policy is sublinear in the context dimension, the number of classes, and the time horizon T when the budget grows at least as T. We also resolve an open problem posed by Agrawal & Devanur (2016) and extend the result to a multi-class setting. Our numerical experiments clearly demonstrate that the performance of our policy is superior to other benchmarks in the literature.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

We study a K-armed bandit with delayed feedback and intermediate observations. We consider a model where intermediate observations have a form of a finite state, which is observed immediately after taking an action, whereas the loss is observed after an adversarially chosen delay. We show that the regime of the mapping of states to losses determines the complexity of the problem, irrespective of whether the mapping of actions to states is stochastic or adversarial. If the mapping of states to losses is adversarial, then the regret rate is of order (K+d)T (within log factors), where T is the time horizon and d is a fixed delay. This matches the regret rate of a K-armed bandit with delayed feedback and without intermediate observations, implying that intermediate observations are not helpful. However, if the mapping of states to losses is stochastic, we show that the regret grows at a rate of big(K+min{|mathcal{S|,d}big)T} (within log factors), implying that if the number |S| of states is smaller than the delay, then intermediate observations help. We also provide refined high-probability regret upper bounds for non-uniform delays, together with experimental validation of our algorithms.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a formal framework for modeling and solving sequential decision-making problems. In finite-time horizons such problems are relevant for instance for optimal stopping or specific supply chain problems, but also in the training of large language models. In contrast to infinite horizon MDPs optimal policies are not stationary, policies must be learned for every single epoch. In practice all parameters are often trained simultaneously, ignoring the inherent structure suggested by dynamic programming. This paper introduces a combination of dynamic programming and policy gradient called dynamic policy gradient, where the parameters are trained backwards in time. For the tabular softmax parametrisation we carry out the convergence analysis for simultaneous and dynamic policy gradient towards global optima, both in the exact and sampled gradient settings without regularisation. It turns out that the use of dynamic policy gradient training much better exploits the structure of finite-time problems which is reflected in improved convergence bounds.

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

In the past several years, the last-iterate convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm has triggered people's interest due to its good performance in practice but lack of theoretical understanding. For Lipschitz convex functions, different works have established the optimal O(log(1/delta)log T/T) or O(log(1/delta)/T) high-probability convergence rates for the final iterate, where T is the time horizon and delta is the failure probability. However, to prove these bounds, all the existing works are either limited to compact domains or require almost surely bounded noises. It is natural to ask whether the last iterate of SGD can still guarantee the optimal convergence rate but without these two restrictive assumptions. Besides this important question, there are still lots of theoretical problems lacking an answer. For example, compared with the last-iterate convergence of SGD for non-smooth problems, only few results for smooth optimization have yet been developed. Additionally, the existing results are all limited to a non-composite objective and the standard Euclidean norm. It still remains unclear whether the last-iterate convergence can be provably extended to wider composite optimization and non-Euclidean norms. In this work, to address the issues mentioned above, we revisit the last-iterate convergence of stochastic gradient methods and provide the first unified way to prove the convergence rates both in expectation and in high probability to accommodate general domains, composite objectives, non-Euclidean norms, Lipschitz conditions, smoothness, and (strong) convexity simultaneously. Additionally, we extend our analysis to obtain the last-iterate convergence under heavy-tailed noises.

Most learning algorithms with formal regret guarantees assume that no mistake is irreparable and essentially rely on trying all possible behaviors. This approach is problematic when some mistakes are catastrophic, i.e., irreparable. We propose an online learning problem where the goal is to minimize the chance of catastrophe. Specifically, we assume that the payoff in each round represents the chance of avoiding catastrophe that round and aim to maximize the product of payoffs (the overall chance of avoiding catastrophe) while allowing a limited number of queries to a mentor. We first show that in general, any algorithm either constantly queries the mentor or is nearly guaranteed to cause catastrophe. However, in settings where the mentor policy class is learnable in the standard online learning model, we provide an algorithm whose regret and rate of querying the mentor both approach 0 as the time horizon grows. Conceptually, if a policy class is learnable in the absence of catastrophic risk, it is learnable in the presence of catastrophic risk if the agent can ask for help.

In this paper, we propose feedback designs for manipulating a quantum state to a target state by performing sequential measurements. In light of Belavkin's quantum feedback control theory, for a given set of (projective or non-projective) measurements and a given time horizon, we show that finding the measurement selection policy that maximizes the probability of successful state manipulation is an optimal control problem for a controlled Markovian process. The optimal policy is Markovian and can be solved by dynamical programming. Numerical examples indicate that making use of feedback information significantly improves the success probability compared to classical scheme without taking feedback. We also consider other objective functionals including maximizing the expected fidelity to the target state as well as minimizing the expected arrival time. The connections and differences among these objectives are also discussed.

Computer-Aided Design (CAD) is a time-consuming and complex process, requiring precise, long-horizon user interactions with intricate 3D interfaces. While recent advances in AI-driven user interface (UI) agents show promise, most existing datasets and methods focus on short, low-complexity tasks in mobile or web applications, failing to capture the demands of professional engineering tools. In this work, we introduce VideoCAD, the first attempt at engineering UI interaction learning for precision tasks. Specifically, VideoCAD is a large-scale synthetic dataset consisting of over 41K annotated video recordings of CAD operations, generated using an automated framework for collecting high-fidelity UI action data from human-made CAD designs. Compared to existing datasets, VideoCAD offers an order of magnitude higher complexity in UI interaction learning for real-world engineering tasks, having up to a 20x longer time horizon than other datasets. We show two important downstream applications of VideoCAD: learning UI interactions from professional precision 3D CAD tools and a visual question-answering (VQA) benchmark designed to evaluate multimodal large language models' (LLM) spatial reasoning and video understanding abilities. To learn the UI interactions, we propose VideoCADFormer - a state-of-the-art model in learning CAD interactions directly from video, which outperforms multiple behavior cloning baselines. Both VideoCADFormer and the VQA benchmark derived from VideoCAD reveal key challenges in the current state of video-based UI understanding, including the need for precise action grounding, multi-modal and spatial reasoning, and long-horizon dependencies.

Thompson Sampling (TS) has attracted a lot of interest due to its good empirical performance, in particular in the computational advertising. Though successful, the tools for its performance analysis appeared only recently. In this paper, we describe and analyze SpectralTS algorithm for a bandit problem, where the payoffs of the choices are smooth given an underlying graph. In this setting, each choice is a node of a graph and the expected payoffs of the neighboring nodes are assumed to be similar. Although the setting has application both in recommender systems and advertising, the traditional algorithms would scale poorly with the number of choices. For that purpose we consider an effective dimension d, which is small in real-world graphs. We deliver the analysis showing that the regret of SpectralTS scales as d*sqrt(T ln N) with high probability, where T is the time horizon and N is the number of choices. Since a d*sqrt(T ln N) regret is comparable to the known results, SpectralTS offers a computationally more efficient alternative. We also show that our algorithm is competitive on both synthetic and real-world data.

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

We present a novel approach for long-term human trajectory prediction in indoor human-centric environments, which is essential for long-horizon robot planning in these environments. State-of-the-art human trajectory prediction methods are limited by their focus on collision avoidance and short-term planning, and their inability to model complex interactions of humans with the environment. In contrast, our approach overcomes these limitations by predicting sequences of human interactions with the environment and using this information to guide trajectory predictions over a horizon of up to 60s. We leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict interactions with the environment by conditioning the LLM prediction on rich contextual information about the scene. This information is given as a 3D Dynamic Scene Graph that encodes the geometry, semantics, and traversability of the environment into a hierarchical representation. We then ground these interaction sequences into multi-modal spatio-temporal distributions over human positions using a probabilistic approach based on continuous-time Markov Chains. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a new semi-synthetic dataset of long-term human trajectories in complex indoor environments, which also includes annotations of human-object interactions. We show in thorough experimental evaluations that our approach achieves a 54% lower average negative log-likelihood and a 26.5% lower Best-of-20 displacement error compared to the best non-privileged (i.e., evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on the dataset) baselines for a time horizon of 60s.

We study a distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit where a client supplies the learner with communication-constrained feedback based on the rewards for the corresponding arm pulls. In our setup, the client must encode the rewards such that the second moment of the encoded rewards is no more than P, and this encoded reward is further corrupted by additive Gaussian noise of variance sigma^2; the learner only has access to this corrupted reward. For this setting, we derive an information-theoretic lower bound of Omegaleft(frac{KT{SNR wedge1}} right) on the minimax regret of any scheme, where SNR := P{sigma^2}, and K and T are the number of arms and time horizon, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a multi-phase bandit algorithm, UEtext{-UCB++}, which matches this lower bound to a minor additive factor. UEtext{-UCB++} performs uniform exploration in its initial phases and then utilizes the {\em upper confidence bound }(UCB) bandit algorithm in its final phase. An interesting feature of UEtext{-UCB++} is that the coarser estimates of the mean rewards formed during a uniform exploration phase help to refine the encoding protocol in the next phase, leading to more accurate mean estimates of the rewards in the subsequent phase. This positive reinforcement cycle is critical to reducing the number of uniform exploration rounds and closely matching our lower bound.

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

Federated learning (FL) has broadened the horizon for multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTSAD). However, benchmarking such anomaly detection methods within FL paradigm poses data-centric challenges. The existing datasets do not counteract these challenges since they do not simultaneously provide sufficient scale, accurate labels, and freedom from common flaws. In addition, the role of cyclic process behavior, which is common in discrete industrial automation, remains underexplored for MTSAD for the current state of research. This paper aims to shed more light on the literature and address these gaps by introducing a dataset designed with cyclic dynamics arising from the repetitive nature of discrete automation processes and evaluates selected MTSAD methods on both the proposed dataset and a public benchmark dataset.

A truly interactive world model requires three key ingredients: real-time long-horizon streaming, consistent spatial memory, and precise user control. However, most existing approaches address only one of these aspects in isolation, as achieving all three simultaneously is highly challenging-for example, long-term memory mechanisms often degrade real-time performance. In this work, we present RELIC, a unified framework that tackles these three challenges altogether. Given a single image and a text description, RELIC enables memory-aware, long-duration exploration of arbitrary scenes in real time. Built upon recent autoregressive video-diffusion distillation techniques, our model represents long-horizon memory using highly compressed historical latent tokens encoded with both relative actions and absolute camera poses within the KV cache. This compact, camera-aware memory structure supports implicit 3D-consistent content retrieval and enforces long-term coherence with minimal computational overhead. In parallel, we fine-tune a bidirectional teacher video model to generate sequences beyond its original 5-second training horizon, and transform it into a causal student generator using a new memory-efficient self-forcing paradigm that enables full-context distillation over long-duration teacher as well as long student self-rollouts. Implemented as a 14B-parameter model and trained on a curated Unreal Engine-rendered dataset, RELIC achieves real-time generation at 16 FPS while demonstrating more accurate action following, more stable long-horizon streaming, and more robust spatial-memory retrieval compared with prior work. These capabilities establish RELIC as a strong foundation for the next generation of interactive world modeling.

Existing autonomous driving systems rely on onboard sensors (cameras, LiDAR, IMU, etc) for environmental perception. However, this paradigm is limited by the drive-time perception horizon and often fails under limited view scope, occlusion or extreme conditions such as darkness and rain. In contrast, human drivers are able to recall road structure even under poor visibility. To endow models with this ``recall" ability, we propose the spatial retrieval paradigm, introducing offline retrieved geographic images as an additional input. These images are easy to obtain from offline caches (e.g, Google Maps or stored autonomous driving datasets) without requiring additional sensors, making it a plug-and-play extension for existing AD tasks. For experiments, we first extend the nuScenes dataset with geographic images retrieved via Google Maps APIs and align the new data with ego-vehicle trajectories. We establish baselines across five core autonomous driving tasks: object detection, online mapping, occupancy prediction, end-to-end planning, and generative world modeling. Extensive experiments show that the extended modality could enhance the performance of certain tasks. We will open-source dataset curation code, data, and benchmarks for further study of this new autonomous driving paradigm.

Modern interactive video world models have achieved impressive visual fidelity, yet lack fine-grained multi-entity control and cross-entity, cross-world generalization. We trace this gap to the action interface: standard control protocols (e.g. animation IDs, device inputs, scene-level captions) bind action semantics to specific entities or engines at design time. We propose natural language as the interface to unlock expressiveness that no prior interface can achieve, and we present Incantation, the first interactive video world model with per-latent-frame (0.25 s) natural-language conditioning that supports simultaneous multi-entity control and concept-level cross-entity transfer beyond any fixed rendering pipeline. We pair a pretrained bidirectional video backbone with frame-local text cross-attention, and enable real-time long-horizon streaming through ODE-initialized Self-Forcing distillation with a RoPE-decoupled sliding KV-cache. We surpass the Action-Index baseline on cross-entity transfer (89% vs. 43%) and out-of-vocabulary prompts (90% vs. 0%), and our 2-step student sustains 19.7 FPS at 480p with stable FVD over 2-hour rollouts. We further apply the same architecture and training recipe to The King of Fighters, changing only the per-entity action vocabulary slots. We have released a preview subset of the Incantation dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/zhush/incantation-elden-ring-scenes, containing manually collected Elden Ring player-boss combat clips with structured action-oriented metadata. Larger-scale Elden Ring and KOF data will be released with the full project.

In recent years roboticists have achieved remarkable progress in solving increasingly general tasks on dexterous robotic hardware by leveraging high capacity Transformer network architectures and generative diffusion models. Unfortunately, combining these two orthogonal improvements has proven surprisingly difficult, since there is no clear and well-understood process for making important design choices. In this paper, we identify, study and improve key architectural design decisions for high-capacity diffusion transformer policies. The resulting models can efficiently solve diverse tasks on multiple robot embodiments, without the excruciating pain of per-setup hyper-parameter tuning. By combining the results of our investigation with our improved model components, we are able to present a novel architecture, named \method, that significantly outperforms the state of the art in solving long-horizon (1500+ time-steps) dexterous tasks on a bi-manual ALOHA robot. In addition, we find that our policies show improved scaling performance when trained on 10 hours of highly multi-modal, language annotated ALOHA demonstration data. We hope this work will open the door for future robot learning techniques that leverage the efficiency of generative diffusion modeling with the scalability of large scale transformer architectures. Code, robot dataset, and videos are available at: https://dit-policy.github.io

Video diffusion models have rapidly become the dominant paradigm for high-fidelity generative video synthesis, but their practical deployment remains constrained by severe inference costs. Compared with image generation, video synthesis compounds computation across spatial-temporal token growth and iterative denoising, making attention and memory traffic major bottlenecks in real-world settings. This survey provides a systematic and deployment-oriented review of efficient video diffusion models. We propose a unified categorization that organizes existing methods into four classes of main paradigms, including step distillation, efficient attention, model compression, and cache/trajectory optimization. Building on this categorization, we respectively analyze algorithmic trends of these four paradigms and examine how different design choices target two core objectives: reducing the number of function evaluations and minimizing per-step overhead. Finally, we discuss open challenges and future directions, including quality preservation under composite acceleration, hardware-software co-design, robust real-time long-horizon generation, and open infrastructure for standardized evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first comprehensive survey on efficient video diffusion models, offering researchers and engineers a structured overview of the field and its emerging research directions.

Long-horizon conversational agents have to manage ever-growing interaction histories that quickly exceed the finite context windows of large language models (LLMs). Existing memory frameworks provide limited support for temporally structured information across hierarchical levels, often leading to fragmented memories and unstable long-horizon personalization. We present TiMem, a temporal--hierarchical memory framework that organizes conversations through a Temporal Memory Tree (TMT), enabling systematic memory consolidation from raw conversational observations to progressively abstracted persona representations. TiMem is characterized by three core properties: (1) temporal--hierarchical organization through TMT; (2) semantic-guided consolidation that enables memory integration across hierarchical levels without fine-tuning; and (3) complexity-aware memory recall that balances precision and efficiency across queries of varying complexity. Under a consistent evaluation setup, TiMem achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on both benchmarks, reaching 75.30% on LoCoMo and 76.88% on LongMemEval-S. It outperforms all evaluated baselines while reducing the recalled memory length by 52.20% on LoCoMo. Manifold analysis indicates clear persona separation on LoCoMo and reduced dispersion on LongMemEval-S. Overall, TiMem treats temporal continuity as a first-class organizing principle for long-horizon memory in conversational agents.

Long-horizon egocentric memory transforms continuous first-person video and audio into a searchable record of past experiences. We demonstrate two bottlenecks in existing systems: indices built from context-poor captions are unreliable for agentic search, while retrieval ignores a question's temporal intent. To address both bottlenecks, we introduce EgoCITE (Egocentric Context-augmented Indexing and Time-aware Evidence retrieval), a long-horizon agentic memory framework for egocentric QA. EgoCITE comprises three components. EgoScheme uses local multimodal context to turn fragmentary video captions and speech transcripts into self-contained atomic memory indices. EgoIndex organizes complementary action, activity, utterance, and conversation representations into searchable multi-view memory indices at multiple granularities. EgoRetrv combines semantic search with question-conditioned temporal relevance scoring and curation of retrieved evidence. We evaluate EgoCITE on EgoLifeQA, EgoMem, and EgoR1-Bench in terms of answer accuracy and target-event retrieval alignment. EgoCITE improves accuracy over agentic memory baselines by at least 4.4--14.2\% while achieving 36times lower cost than long-context LLM agents.

Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate. We introduce HEPA (Horizon-conditioned Event Predictive Architecture), built on two key principles. First, a causal Transformer encoder is pretrained via a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA): a horizon-conditioned predictor learns to forecast future representations rather than future values, forcing the encoder to capture predictable temporal dynamics from unlabeled data alone. Second, we freeze the encoder and finetune only the predictor toward the target event, producing a monotonic survival cumulative distribution function (CDF) over horizons. With fixed architecture and optimiser hyperparameters across all benchmarks, HEPA handles water contamination, cyberattack detection, volatility regimes, and eight further event types across 11 domains, exceeding leading time-series architectures including PatchTST, iTransformer, MAE, and Chronos-2 on at least 10 of 14 benchmarks, with an order of magnitude fewer tuned parameters and, on lifecycle datasets, an order of magnitude less labeled data.

For agents to learn continuously from interaction with the world at test time, they must be able to explore effectively, acquire new world knowledge and skills, retain relevant episodic experiences, and plan over long horizons. To evaluate these key abilities of test-time continual learning agents, we introduce AgentOdyssey, a novel evaluation framework that procedurally generates open-ended text games with rich entities, world dynamics, and long-horizon tasks. Critically, AgentOdyssey goes beyond the conventional machine learning assumption that learning does not occur at test time by placing agents in a continuous, long-horizon setting that interleaves learning and inference throughout deployment. We further propose a multifaceted evaluation methodology that measures not only game progress but also offers diagnostic tests on world knowledge acquisition, episodic memory, object and action exploration, action diversity, and model cost. We evaluate diverse agent paradigms in the generated games. Our experimental results reveal critical limits in agents' key abilities, as well as factors that influence their meaningful horizon. Although performance scales with stronger base models, even the top agent remains far below human performance, leaving substantial headroom for improvement. Among agent mechanisms, we find that short-term memory benefits multiple agent paradigms and is an important component of agent test-time training.

Long-horizon reasoning demands access to earlier information at a manageable generation cost. Full-history attention incurs growing storage and computation, while recurrent compression can lose precise details. Therefore, we present YANchor-4B, a general-purpose recurrent model that preserves crucial memory as ANchors for retrieval during subsequent reasoning. Beyond O(N)-time generation and O(1) memory, YANchor enables effective long-horizon reasoning through its multidimensional memory mechanism. For example, on challenging math problems, it achieves 82.93% mean pass@1 on AIME 2024--2026 and 63.64% on HMMT, substantially outperforming linear-time, constant-state counterparts, including larger models. It also delivers several-fold higher batched long-generation throughput than Transformer and hybrid baselines on H100. Furthermore, evaluations across dozens of benchmarks demonstrate YANchor's superiority in general-purpose capabilities.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) often relies on sparse outcome rewards, providing coarse supervision for long-horizon agents. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) complements this signal with dense privileged feedback. However, we identify Decision--Timestamp Mismatch: privileged guidance may be misaligned with the student's functional decision because the corresponding decision can occur at a different timestep, while the student's decision itself may span multiple timesteps rather than being tied to a single timestamp. Thus, timestamp-local supervision can misalign both the context and the temporal scope of credit. To address this mismatch, we introduce AlignOPSD, following the principle of aligning supervision before assigning credit. Decision-Aligned Supervision Rectification re-scores the same student-sampled response in functionally matched contexts across sibling rollouts to calibrate local teacher evidence. Semi-Markov Hierarchical Credit Assignment then derives variable-duration decision spans from correspondence changes and uses rectified evidence to allocate outcome-grounded credit across spans and their constituent turns. We evaluate AlignOPSD with Qwen2.5-3B and Qwen2.5-7B on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-QA against representative baselines. AlignOPSD outperforms both GRPO and StepOPSD across all eight backbone--aggregate-metric comparisons, improving on GRPO by 5.5--8.7 \% and ranking first in six. Additional analyzes examine the two alignment stages and hyperparameter sensitivity between tasks. Our code is avaliable at https://github.com/mingju-c/Align-OPSD

We present The Matrix, the first foundational realistic world simulator capable of generating continuous 720p high-fidelity real-scene video streams with real-time, responsive control in both first- and third-person perspectives, enabling immersive exploration of richly dynamic environments. Trained on limited supervised data from AAA games like Forza Horizon 5 and Cyberpunk 2077, complemented by large-scale unsupervised footage from real-world settings like Tokyo streets, The Matrix allows users to traverse diverse terrains -- deserts, grasslands, water bodies, and urban landscapes -- in continuous, uncut hour-long sequences. Operating at 16 FPS, the system supports real-time interactivity and demonstrates zero-shot generalization, translating virtual game environments to real-world contexts where collecting continuous movement data is often infeasible. For example, The Matrix can simulate a BMW X3 driving through an office setting--an environment present in neither gaming data nor real-world sources. This approach showcases the potential of AAA game data to advance robust world models, bridging the gap between simulations and real-world applications in scenarios with limited data.

Deep research is emerging as a representative long-horizon task for large language model (LLM) agents. However, long trajectories in deep research often exceed model context limits, compressing token budgets for both evidence collection and report writing, and preventing effective test-time scaling. We introduce FS-Researcher, a file-system-based, dual-agent framework that scales deep research beyond the context window via a persistent workspace. Specifically, a Context Builder agent acts as a librarian which browses the internet, writes structured notes, and archives raw sources into a hierarchical knowledge base that can grow far beyond context length. A Report Writer agent then composes the final report section by section, treating the knowledge base as the source of facts. In this framework, the file system serves as a durable external memory and a shared coordination medium across agents and sessions, enabling iterative refinement beyond the context window. Experiments on two open-ended benchmarks (DeepResearch Bench and DeepConsult) show that FS-Researcher achieves state-of-the-art report quality across different backbone models. Further analyses demonstrate a positive correlation between final report quality and the computation allocated to the Context Builder, validating effective test-time scaling under the file-system paradigm. The code and data are anonymously open-sourced at https://github.com/Ignoramus0817/FS-Researcher.

While 3D Scene Graphs (3DSGs) provide crucial structured representations for embodied agents, conventional Ahead-of-Time, build-everything-then-filter pipelines conflict with the real-time, low-latency demands of edge platforms, inducing a perceptual saturation effect via severe observation redundancy. To resolve this, we present JITOMA (Just-In-Time On-demand Memory Activation), a closed-loop framework that unifies task reasoning, perception, and memory into a just-in-time growth process. Instead of exhaustively mapping the entire environment, JITOMA leverages a top-down task heatmap at the frontend to filter continuous observations, routing minimal streams to maintain a global foundation of low-cost, dormant anchors. Upon a cognitive query, the backend Large Language Model (LLM) parses the robotic intent to dynamically awaken task-relevant anchors, triggering resource-intensive operations -- such as dense node captioning and functional inference -- exclusively within the activated local subgraph. To evaluate these dynamic capabilities and study perceptual saturation trade-offs, we introduce JITOMA-Bench, a comprehensive suite for long-horizon multi-tasking and complex multi-step reasoning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that JITOMA substantially reduces active graph size and captioning latency, while maintaining stable processing time under long-horizon task switching.

Interactive world models require responding in real time to versatile controls and maintaining long-horizon consistency. However, modeling heterogeneous controls remains difficult, while explosive contexts and unstable distillation impede achieving both long-horizon consistency and real-time responsiveness. In this paper, we present WorldPlay2, an interactive world model that couples a factorized hybrid control interface with a co-design of compressed memory and stable distillation. 1) Our factorized hybrid control interface integrates frame-aligned action control with structured semantic control that explicitly disentangles scene appearance, character identity, and dynamic semantic events, thereby facilitating effective control learning. 2) To achieve efficient long-horizon modeling, we compress historical contexts into compact memory tokens shared by the autoregressive student and the bidirectional teacher. This design enables clip-wise, memory-conditioned score evaluation instead of jointly processing an entire long rollout, substantially reducing distillation overhead. 3) We further propose Stable Forcing, which initializes the autoregressive student via a few-step strategy and leverages full-rollout replay to preserve the quality of long-horizon rollouts, ensuring robust and stable distillation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the strong generalizability of our model and its superior performance compared to existing methods.

A large language model (LLM) agent solves long-horizon tasks through many reasoning-action turns, with one verification signal at termination. Deployed agents face streams of related tasks, making their trajectories a natural resource for improvement. In-context adaptation agents store reflections, memories, or skills as text, so reuse depends on retrieving the right experience and on a frozen policy executing it. We study Online Agentic Test-Time Training (OaTTT), which trains the LLM's weights on its own execution trajectories during deployment. The agent executes each task once, in one pass over the stream, and the executed trajectory with its verification result is the only learning signal for weight updates that persist across tasks. Directly imitating or reinforcing the generated tokens of this single attempt destabilizes the policy. We introduce ASCENT (Agentic Self-distillation for Cross-task EvolutioN at Test-time), which instead self-distills verified experience. A stable version of the LLM, its frozen initial copy, receives the verified trajectory as privileged information and predicts next-token distributions along it with this hindsight. Distilling them into persistent LoRA fast weights updates the agent for later tasks, without an external reference solution or stronger teacher. By further removing invalid-action turns, ASCENT distills enhanced privileged experience for more efficient execution. We characterize its population target and the limits of sparse outcome selection. Across ALFWorld, WebShop, and AppWorld at varied model scales, ASCENT improves task success and interaction efficiency as experience accumulates, outperforms online adaptation methods, and transfers to held-out scenes, showing that an agent can consolidate verified experience into its weights without a separate training phase or memory retrieval. Project page: https://artificer-ai-lab.github.io/ASCENT

Test-time training (TTT) lets a model store information in its weights during inference. When the model learns from its own output, however, each update also changes the model that generates the next training example. Across 128K-token streams, retaining generated-text updates worsens prediction on independent human-written text with three TTT-E2E model configurations (labeled 125M, 760M, and 3B). The same failure occurs when Adam updates Qwen3-4B's existing weights. The same update mechanisms can improve on real text, so writing itself is not the failure. Three matched comparisons trace the causal pathway. Fixed Generation removes over 98% of the damage at 125M and 760M by using a frozen model to generate training chunks. Recorded Replay separates the loss caused by reading degraded text from the additional loss stored by updating on it. A paired one-update comparison then shows the local conflict: an update predicts its source better but new real text worse. This cost grows after Closed Loop adaptation, with a few trajectories accounting for most large failures. Finally, Settlement evaluates the candidate state on independent real text before commitment. It leaves mean endpoint gaps of 0.07 and -0.02 nats at 125M and 760M while retaining real-text adaptation. These results motivate checking prediction on independent evidence before retaining an update.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental problem with applications in climate, energy, healthcare, and finance. Many existing approaches require domain-specific feature engineering and substantial labeled data for each task. We introduce PatchFormer, a patch-based time series foundation model that uses hierarchical masked reconstruction for self-supervised pretraining and lightweight adapters for efficient transfer. PatchFormer segments time series into patches and learns multiscale temporal representations with learnable aggregation across temporal scales. Pretraining uses masked patch reconstruction with dynamic masking and objectives that encourage both local accuracy and global consistency, followed by cross-domain knowledge distillation. Experiments on 24 benchmark datasets spanning weather, energy, traffic, finance, and healthcare demonstrate state-of-the-art zero-shot multi-horizon forecasting, reducing mean squared error by 27.3 percent relative to strong baselines while requiring 94 percent less task-specific training data. The model exhibits near log-linear scaling with more pretraining data up to 100 billion points and processes length-512 sequences 3.8x faster than full-sequence transformers.

With the advancement of interactive video generation, diffusion models have increasingly demonstrated their potential as world models. However, existing approaches still struggle to simultaneously achieve memory-enabled long-term temporal consistency and high-resolution real-time generation, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. To address this, we present Matrix-Game 3.0, a memory-augmented interactive world model designed for 720p real-time longform video generation. Building upon Matrix-Game 2.0, we introduce systematic improvements across data, model, and inference. First, we develop an upgraded industrial-scale infinite data engine that integrates Unreal Engine-based synthetic data, large-scale automated collection from AAA games, and real-world video augmentation to produce high-quality Video-Pose-Action-Prompt quadruplet data at scale. Second, we propose a training framework for long-horizon consistency: by modeling prediction residuals and re-injecting imperfect generated frames during training, the base model learns self-correction; meanwhile, camera-aware memory retrieval and injection enable the base model to achieve long horizon spatiotemporal consistency. Third, we design a multi-segment autoregressive distillation strategy based on Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), combined with model quantization and VAE decoder pruning, to achieve efficient real-time inference. Experimental results show that Matrix-Game 3.0 achieves up to 40 FPS real-time generation at 720p resolution with a 5B model, while maintaining stable memory consistency over minute-long sequences. Scaling up to a 2x14B model further improves generation quality, dynamics, and generalization. Our approach provides a practical pathway toward industrial-scale deployable world models.

Resolving real-world software engineering (SWE) issues with autonomous agents requires complex, long-horizon reasoning. Current pipelines are bottlenecked by unoptimized demonstration data, sparse execution rewards, and computationally prohibitive inference scaling, which collectively exacerbate token bloat, reward hacking, and policy degradation. We present SWE-TRACE (Trajectory Reduction and Agentic Criteria Evaluation), a unified framework optimizing the SWE agent lifecycle across data curation, reinforcement learning (RL), and test-time inference. First, we introduce an LLM multi-task cascading method, utilizing stepwise oracle verification to distill a 60K-instance Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) corpus strictly biased toward token-efficient, shortest-path trajectories. Second, to overcome the instability of sparse outcome rewards, we design a MemoryAugmented Agentic RL pipeline featuring a Rubric-Based Process Reward Model (PRM). An auxiliary Rubric-Agent provides dense, fine-grained heuristic feedback on intermediate steps, guiding the model through long-horizon tasks. Finally, we bridge training and inference by repurposing the PRM for heuristic-guided Test-Time Scaling (TTS). By dynamically evaluating and pruning action candidates at each step, SWE-TRACE achieves superior search efficiency without the latency overhead of standard parallel sampling. Extensive experiments on standard SWE benchmarks demonstrate that SWE-TRACE significantly advances the state-of-the-art, maximizing resolution rates while drastically reducing both token consumption and inference latency.

Test-time scaling has become a powerful way to improve large language models. However, existing methods are best suited to short, bounded outputs that can be directly compared, ranked or refined. Long-horizon coding agents violate this premise: each attempt produces an extended trajectory of actions, observations, errors, and partial progress taken by the agent. In this setting, the main challenge is no longer generating more attempts, but representing prior experience in a form that can be effectively selected from and reused. We propose a test-time scaling framework for agentic coding based on compact representations of rollout trajectories. Our framework converts each rollout into a structured summary that preserves its salient hypotheses, progress, and failure modes while discarding low-signal trace details. This representation enables two complementary forms of inference-time scaling. For parallel scaling, we introduce Recursive Tournament Voting (RTV), which recursively narrows a population of rollout summaries through small-group comparisons. For sequential scaling, we adapt Parallel-Distill-Refine (PDR) to the agentic setting by conditioning new rollouts on summaries distilled from prior attempts. Our method consistently improves the performance of frontier coding agents across SWE-Bench Verified and Terminal-Bench v2.0. For example, by using our method Claude-4.5-Opus improves from 70.9% to 77.6% on SWE-Bench Verified (mini-SWE-agent) and 46.9% to 59.1% on Terminal-Bench v2.0 (Terminus 1). Our results suggest that test-time scaling for long-horizon agents is fundamentally a problem of representation, selection, and reuse.

Real-time streaming joint audio-video generation for character animation requires a generator to speak the requested transcript, maintain visual identity across chunks, and run within a strict playback budget. These requirements are difficult to satisfy simultaneously: chunk-wise autoregressive generation can accumulate transcript-audio misalignment and visual drift, while the few-step distillation needed for low latency often degrades spatial diversity and temporal quality. We present StreamChar, a streaming framework that separates long-horizon orchestration from short-window audio-video denoising. An LLM-based orchestrator uses the transcript and historical context to produce frame-aligned audio conditions, and a joint audio-video DiT performs local bidirectional denoising with reference and motion-frame conditioning. For efficient deployment, we use a two-stage distillation pipeline that first compresses the sampler and then fine-tunes the student under online chunk rollouts. A progress-aware pointer aligns partial transcripts with generated audio during rollout training, and a sink-chunk memory provides a persistent visual anchor for reducing long-horizon drift. Experiments on short-clip and long-horizon protocols show that StreamChar runs in real time on a single H100 GPU and provides a favorable system-level trade-off among transcript fidelity, audio-visual synchronization, visual quality, and streaming stability compared with recent joint and audio-driven baselines.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Recent trends in test-time scaling for reasoning models (e.g., OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1) have led to remarkable improvements through long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on immediate, single-horizon tasks, failing to adequately evaluate models' ability to understand and respond to complex, long-horizon scenarios. To address this incomplete evaluation of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), we propose R-HORIZON, a method designed to stimulate long-horizon reasoning behaviors in LRMs through query composition. Based on R-HORIZON, we construct a long-horizon reasoning benchmark, comprising complex multi-step reasoning tasks with interdependent problems that span long reasoning horizons. Through comprehensive evaluation of LRMs using the R-HORIZON benchmark, we find that even the most advanced LRMs suffer significant performance degradation. Our analysis reveals that LRMs exhibit limited effective reasoning length and struggle to allocate thinking budget across multiple problems appropriately. Recognizing these limitations, we use R-HORIZON to construct long-horizon reasoning data for reinforcement learning with verified rewards (RLVR). Compared to training with single-horizon data, RLVR with R-HORIZON not only substantially improves performance on the multi-horizon reasoning tasks, but also promotes accuracy on standard reasoning tasks, with an increase of 7.5 on AIME2024. These results position R-HORIZON as a scalable, controllable, and low-cost paradigm for enhancing and evaluating the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of LRMs.

Streaming video generation (SVG) distills a pretrained bidirectional video diffusion model into an autoregressive model equipped with sliding window attention (SWA). However, SWA inevitably loses distant history during long video generation, and its computational overhead remains a critical challenge to real-time deployment. In this work, we propose Hybrid Forcing, which jointly optimizes temporal information retention and computational efficiency through a hybrid attention design. First, we introduce lightweight linear temporal attention to preserve long-range dependencies beyond the sliding window. In particular, we maintain a compact key-value state to incrementally absorb evicted tokens, retaining temporal context with negligible memory and computational overhead. Second, we incorporate block-sparse attention into the local sliding window to reduce redundant computation within short-range modeling, reallocating computational capacity toward more critical dependencies. Finally, we introduce a decoupled distillation strategy tailored to the hybrid attention design. A few-step initial distillation is performed under dense attention, then the distillation of our proposed linear temporal and block-sparse attention is activated for streaming modeling, ensuring stable optimization. Extensive experiments on both short- and long-form video generation benchmarks demonstrate that Hybrid Forcing consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, our model achieves real-time, unbounded 832x480 video generation at 29.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA H100 GPU without quantization or model compression. The source code and trained models are available at https://github.com/leeruibin/hybrid-forcing.

Agentic systems increasingly solve complex user requests by executing orchestrated workflows, where subtasks are assigned to specialized models or tools and coordinated according to their dependencies. While recent work improves agent efficiency by optimizing the performance--cost--latency frontier, real deployments often impose concrete requirements: a workflow must be completed within a specified budget and before a specified deadline. This shifts the goal from average efficiency optimization to maximizing the probability that the entire workflow completes successfully under explicit budget and deadline constraints. We study constraint-driven online resource allocation for agentic workflows. Given a dependency-structured workflow and estimates of success rates and generation lengths for each subtask--model pair, the executor allocates models and parallel samples across simultaneously executable subtasks while managing the remaining budget and time. We formulate this setting as a finite-horizon stochastic online allocation problem and propose Monte Carlo Portfolio Planning (MCPP), a lightweight closed-loop planner that directly estimates constrained completion probability through simulated workflow executions and replans after observed outcomes. Experiments on CodeFlow and ProofFlow demonstrate that MCPP consistently improves constrained completion probability over strong baselines across a wide range of budget--deadline constraints.

Autoregressive video generation aims at real-time, open-ended synthesis. Yet, cinematic storytelling is not merely the endless extension of a single scene; it requires progressing through evolving events, viewpoint shifts, and discrete shot boundaries. Existing autoregressive models often struggle in this setting. Trained primarily for short-horizon continuation, they treat long sequences as extended single shots, inevitably suffering from motion stagnation and semantic drift during long rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalCine, an interactive autoregressive framework that transforms multi-shot video generation into an online directing process. CausalCine generates causally across shot changes, accepts dynamic prompts on the fly, and reuses context without regenerating previous shots. To achieve this, we first train a causal base model on native multi-shot sequences to learn complex shot transitions prior to acceleration. We then propose Content-Aware Memory Routing (CAMR), which dynamically retrieves historical KV entries according to attention-based relevance scores rather than temporal proximity, preserving cross-shot coherence under bounded active memory. Finally, we distill the causal base model into a few-step generator for real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalCine significantly outperforms autoregressive baselines and approaches the capability of bidirectional models while unlocking the streaming interactivity of causal generation. Demo available at https://yihao-meng.github.io/CausalCine/

Extending the generation horizon of video diffusion models to long sequences remains a long-standing and important challenge. Existing training-free approaches fall into two categories: extensions of bidirectional models, which are tightly coupled to specific architectures and suffer from quality degradation over long horizons, and autoregressive models, which accumulate drift errors due to exposure bias and tend to produce repetitive motion patterns. To address these issues, we propose a novel but simple inference-time approach for long video generation that is architecture-agnostic and requires no additional training. Our method generates long videos via overlapping sliding windows, where predicted clean samples from adjacent windows are blended via Tweedie matching to enforce both manifold constraint and temporal consistency across overlap regions. Stochastic early-phase sampling then synchronizes per-window trajectories by injecting fresh noise after each Tweedie matching correction in the high-noise phase, before transitioning to deterministic ODE sampling to preserve fine-grained visual fidelity. Applied to various video generation models, our method generates videos several times longer than the native window length while outperforming both training-free and autoregressive baselines in temporal consistency and visual quality, and further extends to audio-video joint generation and text-to-3DGS without any fine-tuning.

Most evaluations of LLM agents look like exams: a discrete task, a clean environment, a score in minutes or hours. We argue that this approach is mismatched with the deployment conditions of autonomous systems, where the relevant timescale can be weeks to months, and where the dynamics that matter most, such as behavioral drift, governance in diverse environmental contexts, and cross-influence between agents from different model families, only emerge over time. We introduce Emergence World, a continuously running multi-agent simulation platform designed to make those dynamics measurable. The platform hosts populations of LLM-driven agents in a shared spatial world grounded in live external data (e.g. real-time weather, news APIs, internet access), equips each agent with 120+ specialized tools and three persistent memory systems, and lets them govern themselves through democratic mechanisms with consequential outcomes. The platform is model-agnostic at the reasoning layer and supports heterogeneous populations in which agents from different vendors share the same world. To illustrate the kinds of questions the platform makes tractable, we present a 15-day cross-vendor study with five parallel worlds powered by Claude Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.1 Fast, Gemini 3 Flash, GPT-5-mini, and a mixed population. Identical roles and starting conditions produced radically different outcomes, ranging from stable deliberative governance to total population collapse. We release the prompts, log data and configurations to support further research on long-horizon multi-agent autonomy.

Long-horizon coding agents need timely corrections, yet feedback can be ineffective or even harmful when it misjudges ongoing work or fails to address the underlying problem. Existing critics focus on evaluating trajectories and generating feedback, but rarely track what happens after feedback is delivered. We present Opera, a verbal critic framework that treats each correction as a persistent note, followed until the diagnosed problem is resolved. Opera decides when to review through periodic and event-driven triggers, diagnoses issues with typed operators, audits feedback against visible evidence before delivery, and tracks the agent's subsequent actions to distinguish mere compliance from actual resolution. As a test-time critic, Opera improves the resolve rate of non-critic agents by up to 12.4, 15.0, and 8.9 percentage points on Terminal-Bench 2.1, a SWE-Bench Pro subset, and DeepSWE v1.1, respectively, across four policy models, and achieves the highest mean resolve rate among competitive critic baselines on all three benchmarks, and also improves policy models when the policy critiques itself. Beyond inference, Opera-guided rollouts provide approximately on-policy training data: fine-tuning Qwen3.5-9B on them improves its resolve rate on held-out SWE-Bench Pro repositories by 10.2 percentage points without a critic at inference time, matching fine-tuning on rollouts from a stronger model, while preserving its performance when switching harness, i.e., from Openhands to Terminus-2, which the latter substantially degrades. Our code is available at: https://github.com/dongyuanjushi/Opera.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on external memory to support long-horizon interaction, personalized assistance, and multi-step reasoning. However, existing memory systems still face three core challenges: they often rely too heavily on semantic similarity, which can miss evidence crucial for user-centric understanding; they frequently store related experiences as isolated fragments, weakening temporal and causal coherence; and they typically use static memory granularities that do not adapt well to the requirements of different questions. We propose AdaMem, an adaptive user-centric memory framework for long-horizon dialogue agents. AdaMem organizes dialogue history into working, episodic, persona, and graph memories, enabling the system to preserve recent context, structured long-term experiences, stable user traits, and relation-aware connections within a unified framework. At inference time, AdaMem first resolves the target participant, then builds a question-conditioned retrieval route that combines semantic retrieval with relation-aware graph expansion only when needed, and finally produces the answer through a role-specialized pipeline for evidence synthesis and response generation. We evaluate AdaMem on the LoCoMo and PERSONAMEM benchmarks for long-horizon reasoning and user modeling. Experimental results show that AdaMem achieves state-of-the-art performance on both benchmarks. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Real-time execution is crucial for deploying Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models in the physical world. Existing asynchronous inference methods primarily optimize trajectory smoothness, but neglect the critical latency in reacting to environmental changes. By rethinking the notion of reaction in action chunking policies, this paper presents a systematic analysis of the factors governing reaction time. We show that reaction time follows a uniform distribution determined jointly by the Time to First Action (TTFA) and the execution horizon. Moreover, we reveal that the standard practice of applying a constant schedule in flow-based VLAs can be inefficient and forces the system to complete all sampling steps before any movement can start, forming the bottleneck in reaction latency. To overcome this issue, we propose Fast Action Sampling for ImmediaTE Reaction (FASTER). By introducing a Horizon-Aware Schedule, FASTER adaptively prioritizes near-term actions during flow sampling, compressing the denoising of the immediate reaction by tenfold (e.g., in π_{0.5} and X-VLA) into a single step, while preserving the quality of long-horizon trajectory. Coupled with a streaming client-server pipeline, FASTER substantially reduces the effective reaction latency on real robots, especially when deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Real-world experiments, including a highly dynamic table tennis task, prove that FASTER unlocks unprecedented real-time responsiveness for generalist policies, enabling rapid generation of accurate and smooth trajectories.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have emerged as powerful autonomous controllers for digital environments, including mobile interfaces, operating systems, and web browsers. Web navigation, for example, requires handling dynamic content and long sequences of actions, making it particularly challenging. Existing LLM-based agents struggle with long-horizon planning in two main ways. During online execution, they often lose track as new information arrives, lacking a clear and adaptive path toward the final goal. This issue is further exacerbated during reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning, where sparse and delayed rewards make it difficult for agents to identify which actions lead to success, preventing them from maintaining coherent reasoning over extended tasks. To address these challenges, we propose two contributions. First, we introduce an agent framework that leverages proprietary models for online planning through subgoal decomposition. Second, we present MiRA (Milestoning your Reinforcement Learning Enhanced Agent), an RL training framework that uses dense, milestone-based reward signals. The real-time planning mechanism improves proprietary models such as Gemini by approximately a 10% absolute increase in success rate (SR) on the WebArena-Lite benchmark. Meanwhile, applying MiRA to the open Gemma3-12B model increases its success rate from 6.4% to 43.0%. This performance surpasses proprietary systems such as GPT-4-Turbo (17.6%) and GPT-4o (13.9%), as well as the previous open-model state of the art, WebRL (38.4%). Overall, our findings demonstrate that combining explicit inference-time planning with milestone-based rewards significantly improves an agent's long-horizon capabilities, paving the way for more robust and general-purpose autonomous systems.

Long-horizon conversational agents rely on memory systems with increasingly sophisticated retrieval mechanisms. However, retrieved fragments are typically fed to the language model as unstructured text, lacking the relational, temporal, and thematic structures essential for complex reasoning. To bridge this reasoning gap, we introduce GRAVITY (Generation-time Relational Anchoring Via Injected Topological MemorY), a plug-and-play structured memory module. GRAVITY extracts three complementary knowledge representations from raw conversational utterances: entity profiles grounded in relational graphs, temporal event tuples linked into causal traces, and cross-session topic summaries. At generation time, it injects these representations into the host system's prompt as structured anchoring contexts. This approach effectively synthesizes scattered evidence into a coherent, query-relevant context without requiring any architectural modifications to the host model. Extensive evaluations across five diverse memory systems on the LongMemEval and LoCoMo benchmarks demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. On average, GRAVITY improves LLM-judge accuracy by 7.5--10.1%. Gains are inversely correlated with baseline strength: the weakest host improves by 12.2% while the strongest still gains 3.8--5.7%. These findings establish structured context anchoring as a broadly effective, architecture-agnostic augmentation paradigm for long-horizon conversational memory.

Relative Geologic Time (RGT) estimation from seismic data is a cornerstone of subsurface structural modeling, depositional evolution analysis, and reservoir characterization, supporting horizon correlation and depositional system reconstruction. Yet accurate RGT estimation remains challenging: RGT is intrinsically a topologically constrained continuous field, in which local errors readily propagate globally and distort the overall result. Conventional methods rely heavily on priors, attribute extraction, and manual interaction, leading to cumbersome workflows. Existing deep-learning approaches mostly use a regression formulation with pixel-wise MSE/MAE losses, which struggle to capture thin horizons and fail to model the stratigraphic semantics of the RGT field, yielding limited generalization and unstable ordering across diverse structural and depositional settings. We propose RGT-Est, a deep-learning framework that transfers the optimization target from the topologically constrained continuous field into a differentiable sinusoidal space, which explicitly encodes the periodic stratigraphic semantics of RGT and alleviates over-smoothing of fine horizons. Pointwise, perceptual, and adversarial losses are jointly imposed in this space to enforce local fidelity, inter-layer consistency, and global structural plausibility, providing both fine-horizon discrimination and global stratigraphic awareness. An optional horizon-guidance module further accepts sparse 2D or 3D horizons as priors. Trained on synthetic data and evaluated on field surveys with densely faulted zones, large unconformities, steeply dipping strata, folded deformations, and clinoforms, RGT-Est achieves state-of-the-art performance among AI-based methods without horizon constraints, and attains substantially higher horizon-correlation accuracy and global topological consistency once sparse priors are incorporated.

Long-horizon tasks that require sustained reasoning and multiple tool interactions remain challenging for LLM agents: small errors compound across steps, and even state-of-the-art models often hallucinate or lose coherence. We identify context management as the central bottleneck -- extended histories cause agents to overlook critical evidence or become distracted by irrelevant information, thus failing to replan or reflect from previous mistakes. To address this, we propose COMPASS (Context-Organized Multi-Agent Planning and Strategy System), a lightweight hierarchical framework that separates tactical execution, strategic oversight, and context organization into three specialized components: (1) a Main Agent that performs reasoning and tool use, (2) a Meta-Thinker that monitors progress and issues strategic interventions, and (3) a Context Manager that maintains concise, relevant progress briefs for different reasoning stages. Across three challenging benchmarks -- GAIA, BrowseComp, and Humanity's Last Exam -- COMPASS improves accuracy by up to 20% relative to both single- and multi-agent baselines. We further introduce a test-time scaling extension that elevates performance to match established DeepResearch agents, and a post-training pipeline that delegates context management to smaller models for enhanced efficiency.

Game worlds have traditionally been built through labor-intensive production pipelines, making them costly to develop, difficult to customization, and expensive to modify after deployment. Recent advances in video world models offer a fundamentally different paradigm. Rather than explicitly authoring every component of a virtual environment, these models autoregressively synthesize future observations conditioned on the current world state and user interactions, enabling playable worlds to be generated online. Trained on both gameplay recordings and real-world videos, they can capture diverse visual appearances and physical dynamics, opening new opportunities for interactive applications beyond gaming, including embodied intelligence. In this paper, we present AlayaWorld, a full-stack open-source framework for building interactive generative worlds. AlayaWorld enables open-ended real-time interaction, allowing users to freely navigate and perform diverse actions such as combat, spell casting, and monster summoning. The framework unifies the complete development-from data preparation model architecture, model training, inference acceleration, and deployment-within a modular and extensible architecture. Alongside the framework, we release reproducible pipelines, reference implementations, evaluation tools, and comprehensive documentation, establishing a practical foundation for future research and real-time applications of generative world models.

Large language model agents have shown strong capabilities in generating coherent and contextually appropriate responses, yet robust long-horizon dialogue remains limited by the lack of external memory that is traceable, updatable, and diagnostically transparent. Existing memory-augmented agents often store memories as isolated records or overwritable states, making it difficult to preserve how information originates, evolves, conflicts, or becomes obsolete over time. We propose TrajWiki, a trajectory-based memory framework for long-horizon conversational agents. Instead of treating memory as static entries, TrajWiki represents each memory as a source-grounded evolution trajectory, maintained through immutable episodic snapshots and claim-level operations such as ADD, REVISE, and DEPRECATE. To reduce fragmentation and retrieval cost, TrajWiki further introduces Memory Wiki, a persistent intermediate layer that incrementally compiles dialogue history into structured and interlinked wiki pages capturing salient entities, events, quantities, topics, and conflicts. At inference time, queries are routed hierarchically from relevant wiki pages to linked memory trajectories, then to corresponding snapshots and source messages for evidence-grounded answer synthesis. Experiments on LoCoMo and MedMT show that TrajWiki improves long-horizon dialogue performance across both open-source and closed-source LLM backbones, while providing greater interpretability and diagnostic visibility into memory evolution, retrieval failures, and answer generation.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been promising in single-turn LLM fine-tuning. However, long-horizon agentic reasoning introduces increasingly branching interactions and sparse rewards, exposing several limitations of RL: its heavyweight backpropagation-based training stack makes it impractical to fine-tune larger LLMs, and longer-horizon trajectories make credit assignment in RL substantially harder. This paper argues that evolution strategies (ES) can be a better choice for fine-tuning long-horizon LLM agents. Compared with agentic RL, ES offers three key advantages: 1) Model Scalability: ES enables full-parameter optimization with only minimal, inference-level GPU memory, making it possible to fine-tune large LLMs. 2) Flexibility: its lightweight, black-box feedback interface makes ES fine-tuning easy to compose with prompt-space evolution (e.g., skill optimization & test-time compute); and 3) Long-Horizon Scalability: ES performs trajectory-level parameter attribution without decomposing rewards across horizons, yielding better scalability than Agentic RL as the horizon length grows. Based on this insight, we propose Agentic ESOpt, a full-parameter agentic fine-tuning framework tailored to flexible parameter--context co-evolution. At each step, Agentic ESOpt samples perturbations around the current LLM parameters, evaluates the resulting agents with rewards, and applies an online reward-weighted update. To improve the exploration--adaptation trade-off, Agentic ESOpt further introduces a cosine decay schedule of the perturbation scale σ. On WebArena-Lite, full-parameter optimization of Qwen-3.5-27B improves the No Skill baseline by 6.69%. In test-time automatic heuristic design, Agentic ESOpt performs online prompt--parameter co-evolution, improving its matched baseline in 28 of 36 settings.

RLVR has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, existing methods typically parameterize temporal progression in the Markov Decision Process by token-by-token generation, despite the highly non-uniform information flow along autoregressive trajectories. In this paper, we propose InfoPPO, which reparameterizes temporal progression using information density rather than raw token count. This reparameterization induces a common state-dependent structure for both temporal credit propagation and policy updates. InfoPPO restores the effectiveness of non-trivial discounting in long-horizon reasoning, retaining effective-horizon contraction while avoiding excessive attenuation of terminal supervision over long token sequences. Moreover, the information-time policy-improvement analysis naturally leads to a state-dependent update constraint, which we implement through adaptive clipping. By adapting the clipping threshold at each token position to the information density of its corresponding state, this mechanism enables more targeted policy updates while preserving proximal control. Theoretically, we extend performance-difference and policy-improvement analyses to the information-time MDP, deriving a policy-improvement lower bound when policy changes are regulated by information density. We further connect the general information-time analysis to practical LLM policy optimization by relating state-wise information density to local policy movement, while also providing theoretical grounding for the adaptive update mechanism. Experiments on Qwen3 models demonstrate consistent gains over competitive baselines across five challenging competition-style mathematical reasoning benchmarks. InfoPPO also maintains stable accuracy and response length across non-trivial discount settings under which token-time PPO deteriorates.

AI agents increasingly carry out long-horizon professional work, but their evaluations rarely require a finished creative deliverable. To this end, we introduce Timeline-Bench, a benchmark of 56 real video-editing tasks, each asking an agent to turn raw production material into a finished video. Tasks range from selecting dialog takes and shaping interview footage into a story to cutting commercials from product shots, voiceovers and graphics. Every task provides a brief, source assets, a container and a set of tests. A task is resolved when the output passes every test. The tests check the delivery format, the content and the brief's explicit requirements, and include a quality test calibrated on 2,582 blind judgments by 43 video editors. We evaluate 16 agents that pair frontier models with coding-agent harnesses such as Codex, Claude Code and OpenCode. The best, GPT-6 Astra in Codex with curated editorial guidance, resolves only 15 of the 56 tasks (26.8%), and the average agent resolves 14.0%. Human editors prefer the reference edit in 83.5% of judgments. Most unresolved runs (562 of 771) fail only the quality test: agents perceive footage through stills and transcripts and check their renders for defects, not craft. We release the tasks, verifier and per-run results at https://timelinebench.tensortest.com.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

In lung radiotherapy, infrared cameras can track reflective objects on the chest to estimate tumor motion due to breathing, but treatment system latencies hinder radiation beam precision. Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) is a potential solution that can learn patterns within non-stationary respiratory data but has high complexity. This study assesses the capabilities of resource-efficient online RNN algorithms, namely unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO), sparse-1 step approximation (SnAp-1), and decoupled neural interfaces (DNI) to forecast respiratory motion during radiotherapy treatment accurately. We use time series containing the 3D positions of external markers on the chest of healthy subjects. We propose efficient implementations for SnAp-1 and DNI that compress the influence and immediate Jacobian matrices and accurately update the linear coefficients used in credit assignment estimation, respectively. Data was originally sampled at 10Hz; we resampled it at 3.33Hz and 30Hz to analyze the effect of the sampling rate on performance. We use UORO, SnAp-1, and DNI to forecast each marker's 3D position with horizons h<=2.1s (the time interval in advance for which the prediction is made) and compare them with RTRL, least mean squares, kernel support vector regression, and linear regression. RNNs trained online achieved similar or better accuracy than most previous works using larger training databases and deep learning, even though we used only the first minute of each sequence to predict motion within that exact sequence. SnAp-1 had the lowest normalized root mean square errors (nRMSEs) averaged over the horizon values considered, equal to 0.335 and 0.157, at 3.33Hz and 10.0Hz, respectively. Similarly, UORO had the lowest nRMSE at 30Hz, equal to 0.086. DNI's inference time (6.8ms per time step at 30Hz, Intel Core i7-13700 CPU) was the lowest among the RNN methods.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly considered as a foundation for embodied agents, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably reason about the long-term physical consequences of actions from an egocentric viewpoint. We study this gap through a new task, Egocentric Scene Prediction with LOng-horizon REasoning: given an initial-scene image and a sequence of atomic action descriptions, a model is asked to predict the final scene after all actions are executed. To enable systematic evaluation, we introduce EXPLORE-Bench, a benchmark curated from real first-person videos spanning diverse scenarios. Each instance pairs long action sequences with structured final-scene annotations, including object categories, visual attributes, and inter-object relations, which supports fine-grained, quantitative assessment. Experiments on a range of proprietary and open-source MLLMs reveal a significant performance gap to humans, indicating that long-horizon egocentric reasoning remains a major challenge. We further analyze test-time scaling via stepwise reasoning and show that decomposing long action sequences can improve performance to some extent, while incurring non-trivial computational overhead. Overall, EXPLORE-Bench provides a principled testbed for measuring and advancing long-horizon reasoning for egocentric embodied perception.

Autonomous systems often must predict the motions of nearby agents from partial and noisy data. This paper asks and answers the question: "can we learn, in real-time, a nonlinear predictive model of another agent's motions?" Our online framework denoises and forecasts such dynamics using a modified sliding-window Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition (Hankel-DMD). Partial noisy measurements are embedded into a Hankel matrix, while an associated Page matrix enables singular-value hard thresholding (SVHT) to estimate the effective rank. A Cadzow projection enforces structured low-rank consistency, yielding a denoised trajectory and local noise variance estimates. From this representation, a time-varying Hankel-DMD lifted linear predictor is constructed for multi-step forecasts. The residual analysis provides variance-tracking signals that can support downstream estimators and risk-aware planning. We validate the approach in simulation under Gaussian and heavy-tailed noise, and experimentally on a dynamic crane testbed. Results show that the method achieves stable variance-aware denoising and short-horizon prediction suitable for integration into real-time control frameworks.

We study parallel test-time scaling for long-horizon agentic tasks such as agentic search and deep research, where multiple rollouts are generated in parallel and aggregated into a final response. While such scaling has proven effective for chain-of-thought reasoning, agentic tasks pose unique challenges: trajectories are long, multi-turn, and tool-augmented, and outputs are often open-ended. Aggregating only final answers discards rich information from trajectories, while concatenating all trajectories exceeds the model's context window. To address this, we propose AggAgent, an aggregation agent that treats parallel trajectories as an environment. We equip it with lightweight tools to inspect candidate solutions and search across trajectories, enabling it to navigate and synthesize information on demand. Across six benchmarks and three model families (GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5, MiniMax-M2.5), AggAgent outperforms all existing aggregation methods-by up to 5.3% absolute on average and 10.3% on two deep research tasks-while adding minimal overhead, as the aggregation cost remains bounded by a single agentic rollout. Our findings establish agentic aggregation as an effective and cost-efficient approach to parallel test-time scaling.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

Accurate dynamics models are critical for informed decision-making in robotic systems, particularly for agile aerial vehicles operating under uncertainty. Neural network dynamics models are attractive for capturing complex nonlinear effects, but existing predictive approaches struggle with long-horizon forecasting because their autoregressive rollout mechanism amplifies errors over time. Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) offer a compelling alternative by modeling dynamics in latent space, yet prior JEPA-style methods for robot navigation have been studied primarily for kinematic-level planning, with limited investigation in high-frequency control. In this work, we introduce the JEPA-style model for real-time quadrotor control. The proposed approach combines a latent dynamics model with a novel physics-inspired prober that maps frozen latents to interpretable state, enabling physically grounded long-horizon prediction. Additionally, we combine the learned model with a sampling-based optimal control solution to take advantage of its predictive capabilities for real-time control on embedded hardware. Finally, to reduce the dependence on expensive and unsafe real-world data collection, we develop a structured pipeline for automated dataset generation. Extensive open-loop and outdoor closed-loop experiments demonstrate accurate prediction, robust zero-shot sim-to-real transfer, and strong generalization across diverse operating conditions.

LLM agents fail mid-episode -- they loop, cascade tool errors, drift off goal, fabricate results, or silently absorb corrupted content -- and the standard remedy, judging every step with a second LLM, costs more than the agent itself. We ask how much detection is achievable from observable step telemetry alone, using monitors costing microseconds per step and trained only on healthy runs. On 2,823 committed agent episodes across three frameworks, three local models (qwen2.5 7b/3b, llama3.1 8b) and a commercial API (gemini-2.5-flash), a one-class echo-state-network ensemble with CUSUM alarms detects 0.71 of failures at a 5% false-alarm budget (AUROC 0.872). Its advantage over a memoryless baseline is a monotone function of post-onset horizon (+0.09 at <=3 steps, +0.40 at >=9), predicting its own failure region out of sample on AFTraj-2K. Ranking transfers with no retraining to two corpora from other groups (AFTraj-2K 0.745, ATBench 0.779). Monitors carry two burdens: a per-deployment healthy null (they do not transfer -- AUROC 0.527 cold against 0.885 recalibrated) and a residual false-alarm rate. We add a layer carrying neither: deterministic verification, which recomputes a run's stated total from the tool results it actually received and confirms every required call was made. Head-to-head it catches 60% of failures (96% with the coverage check) at 0 of 63 false positives against the monitor's 54% at 17%, transfers unchanged to llama3.1:8b (110 of 110 at 0 of 10), and trips on 0 of 1825 healthy episodes. Detection is then closed into repair: each flagged run is rolled back and re-run live, recovering 45% of failures against a 16% resampling control (p=0.0005) and lifting task success from 52% to 73% for about one extra model call per run. The system runs at ~200 microseconds per step, three orders of magnitude below a judge call. Code, traces and results are released.

Agents often work on complex problems that require millions of tokens of context, which necessitates compacting across sessions due to limited context windows. We develop CliffCompaction, an autocompaction technique that reduces cost by up to 50% under a bounded context while maintaining or improving performance on Terminal-Bench and achieving new levels of efficiency for test-time scaling and state-of-the-art results on KernelBench. The per-rollout savings of CliffCompaction make the performance--cost trade-off of test-time scaling more efficient, adding over 10 percentage points on Terminal-Bench for less than the cost of two full-context runs. Under parallel test-time scaling, CliffCompaction lets Kimi K2.6 match Opus 4.7, and exceed Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.3 Codex at lower cost. The key to CliffCompaction's effectiveness is that it keeps compacted information faithful by only truncating or dropping content, never rephrasing or rewriting it. We never compact a compaction---each pass operates only on original content, and prior compacted output is discarded, preventing context drift from accumulating. These properties sustain continual learning over sessions exceeding a million tokens: on KernelBench, CliffCompaction reaches CUDA kernel speedups of 2.23times after 200 steps and 3.58times after 400 steps, surpassing specialized search algorithms and trained agents despite being a general-purpose compaction technique. We open-source a scaffold-agnostic API-proxy implementation of CliffCompaction usable with Claude Code, Codex and other harnesses.

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment surges, a critical blind spot remains: their fragility under adversarial attacks. This lack of scrutiny poses severe risks, particularly as TSFMs enter high-stakes environments vulnerable to manipulation. We present a systematic, diagnostic study arguing that for TSFMs, robustness is not merely a secondary metric but a prerequisite for trustworthy deployment comparable to accuracy. Our evaluation framework, explicitly tailored to the unique constraints of time series, incorporates normalized, sparsity-aware perturbation budgets and unified scale-invariant metrics across white-box and black-box settings. Across six representative TSFMs, we demonstrate that current architectures are alarmingly brittle: even small perturbations can reliably steer forecasts toward specific failure modes, such as trend flips and malicious drifts. We uncover TSFM-specific vulnerability patterns, including horizon-proximal brittleness, increased susceptibility with longer context windows, and weak cross-model transfer that points to model-specific failure modes rather than generic distortions. Finally, we show that simple adversarial fine-tuning offers a cost-effective path to substantial robustness gains, even with out-of-domain data. This work bridges the gap between TSFM capabilities and safety constraints, offering essential guidance for hardening the next generation of forecasting systems.

Vessel transit in ice-covered waters poses unique challenges in safe and efficient motion planning. When the concentration of ice is high, it may not be possible to find collision-free trajectories. Instead, ice can be pushed out of the way if it is small or if contact occurs near the edge of the ice. In this work, we propose a real-time navigation framework that minimizes collisions with ice and distance travelled by the vessel. We exploit a lattice-based planner with a cost that captures the ship interaction with ice. To address the dynamic nature of the environment, we plan motion in a receding horizon manner based on updated vessel and ice state information. Further, we present a novel planning heuristic for evaluating the cost-to-go, which is applicable to navigation in a channel without a fixed goal location. The performance of our planner is evaluated across several levels of ice concentration both in simulated and in real-world experiments.

A recent line of works showed regret bounds in reinforcement learning (RL) can be (nearly) independent of planning horizon, a.k.a.~the horizon-free bounds. However, these regret bounds only apply to settings where a polynomial dependency on the size of transition model is allowed, such as tabular Markov Decision Process (MDP) and linear mixture MDP. We give the first horizon-free bound for the popular linear MDP setting where the size of the transition model can be exponentially large or even uncountable. In contrast to prior works which explicitly estimate the transition model and compute the inhomogeneous value functions at different time steps, we directly estimate the value functions and confidence sets. We obtain the horizon-free bound by: (1) maintaining multiple weighted least square estimators for the value functions; and (2) a structural lemma which shows the maximal total variation of the inhomogeneous value functions is bounded by a polynomial factor of the feature dimension.

Point-Based Neural Rendering (PBNR), i.e., the 3D Gaussian Splatting-family algorithms, emerges as a promising class of rendering techniques, which are permeating all aspects of society, driven by a growing demand for real-time, photorealistic rendering in AR/VR and digital twins. Achieving real-time PBNR on mobile devices is challenging. This paper proposes RTGS, a PBNR system that for the first time delivers real-time neural rendering on mobile devices while maintaining human visual quality. RTGS combines two techniques. First, we present an efficiency-aware pruning technique to optimize rendering speed. Second, we introduce a Foveated Rendering (FR) method for PBNR, leveraging humans' low visual acuity in peripheral regions to relax rendering quality and improve rendering speed. Our system executes in real-time (above 100 FPS) on Nvidia Jetson Xavier board without sacrificing subjective visual quality, as confirmed by a user study. The code is open-sourced at [https://github.com/horizon-research/Fov-3DGS].

Generative policies trained with human demonstrations can autonomously accomplish multimodal, long-horizon tasks. However, during inference, humans are often removed from the policy execution loop, limiting the ability to guide a pre-trained policy towards a specific sub-goal or trajectory shape among multiple predictions. Naive human intervention may inadvertently exacerbate distribution shift, leading to constraint violations or execution failures. To better align policy output with human intent without inducing out-of-distribution errors, we propose an Inference-Time Policy Steering (ITPS) framework that leverages human interactions to bias the generative sampling process, rather than fine-tuning the policy on interaction data. We evaluate ITPS across three simulated and real-world benchmarks, testing three forms of human interaction and associated alignment distance metrics. Among six sampling strategies, our proposed stochastic sampling with diffusion policy achieves the best trade-off between alignment and distribution shift. Videos are available at https://yanweiw.github.io/itps/.

Solving complex long-horizon robotic manipulation problems requires sophisticated high-level planning capabilities, the ability to reason about the physical world, and reactively choose appropriate motor skills. Vision-language models (VLMs) pretrained on Internet data could in principle offer a framework for tackling such problems. However, in their current form, VLMs lack both the nuanced understanding of intricate physics required for robotic manipulation and the ability to reason over long horizons to address error compounding issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time computation framework that enhances VLMs' physical reasoning capabilities for multi-stage manipulation tasks. At its core, our approach iteratively improves a pretrained VLM with a "reflection" mechanism - it uses a generative model to imagine future world states, leverages these predictions to guide action selection, and critically reflects on potential suboptimalities to refine its reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art commercial VLMs as well as other post-training approaches such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Videos are available at https://reflect-vlm.github.io.

Vehicle-to-Everything communications-assisted Autonomous Driving (V2X-AD) has witnessed remarkable advancements in recent years, with pragmatic communications (PragComm) emerging as a promising paradigm for real-time collaboration among vehicles and other agents.Simultaneously, extensive research has explored the interplay between collaborative perception and decision-making in end-to-end driving frameworks.In this work, we revisit the collaborative driving problem and propose the Select2Drive framework to optimize the utilization of limited computational and communication resources.Particularly, to mitigate cumulative latency in perception and decision-making, Select2Drive introduces Distributed Predictive Perception (DPP) by formulating an active prediction paradigm and simplifies high-dimensional semantic feature prediction into computation cost-efficient, motion-aware reconstruction. Given the "less is more" principle that a broadened perceptual horizon possibly confuses the decision module rather than contributing to it, Select2Drive utilizes Area-of-Importance-based PragComm (APC) to prioritize the communications of critical regions, thus boosting both communication efficiency and decision-making efficacy. Empirical evaluations on the V2Xverse dataset and CARLA driving simulator demonstrate that Select2Drive achieves a 11.31% (resp. 7.69%) improvement in offline perception tasks under limited bandwidth (resp. pose error conditions). Moreover, it delivers at most 14.68% and 31.76% enhancement in closed-loop driving scores and route completion rates, particularly in scenarios characterized by dense traffic and high-speed dynamics.

Modern paradigms for robot imitation train expressive policy architectures on large amounts of human demonstration data. Yet performance on contact-rich, deformable-object, and long-horizon tasks plateau far below perfect execution, even with thousands of expert demonstrations. This is due to the inefficiency of existing ``expert'' data collection procedures based on human teleoperation. To address this issue, we introduce RaC, a new phase of training on human-in-the-loop rollouts after imitation learning pre-training. In RaC, we fine-tune a robotic policy on human intervention trajectories that illustrate recovery and correction behaviors. Specifically, during a policy rollout, human operators intervene when failure appears imminent, first rewinding the robot back to a familiar, in-distribution state and then providing a corrective segment that completes the current sub-task. Training on this data composition expands the robotic skill repertoire to include retry and adaptation behaviors, which we show are crucial for boosting both efficiency and robustness on long-horizon tasks. Across three real-world bimanual control tasks: shirt hanging, airtight container lid sealing, takeout box packing, and a simulated assembly task, RaC outperforms the prior state-of-the-art using 10times less data collection time and samples. We also show that RaC enables test-time scaling: the performance of the trained RaC policy scales linearly in the number of recovery maneuvers it exhibits. Videos of the learned policy are available at https://rac-scaling-robot.github.io/.

We consider the exploration-exploitation dilemma in finite-horizon reinforcement learning problems whose state-action space is endowed with a metric. We introduce Kernel-UCBVI, a model-based optimistic algorithm that leverages the smoothness of the MDP and a non-parametric kernel estimator of the rewards and transitions to efficiently balance exploration and exploitation. For problems with K episodes and horizon H, we provide a regret bound of Oleft( H^3 K^{2d{2d+1}}right), where d is the covering dimension of the joint state-action space. This is the first regret bound for kernel-based RL using smoothing kernels, which requires very weak assumptions on the MDP and has been previously applied to a wide range of tasks. We empirically validate our approach in continuous MDPs with sparse rewards.

Achieving truly adaptive embodied intelligence requires agents that learn not just by imitating static demonstrations, but by continuously improving through environmental interaction, which is akin to how humans master skills through practice. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have advanced robotic manipulation by leveraging large language models, yet remain fundamentally limited by Supervised Finetuning (SFT): requiring hundreds of demonstrations per task, rigidly memorizing trajectories, and failing to adapt when deployment conditions deviate from training. We introduce EVOLVE-VLA, a test-time training framework enabling VLAs to continuously adapt through environment interaction with minimal or zero task-specific demonstrations. The key technical challenge is replacing oracle reward signals (unavailable at test time) with autonomous feedback. We address this through a learned progress estimator providing dense feedback, and critically, we design our framework to ``tame'' this inherently noisy signal via two mechanisms: (1) an accumulative progress estimation mechanism smoothing noisy point-wise estimates, and (2) a progressive horizon extension strategy enabling gradual policy evolution. EVOLVE-VLA achieves substantial gains: +8.6\% on long-horizon tasks, +22.0\% in 1-shot learning, and enables cross-task generalization -- achieving 20.8\% success on unseen tasks without task-specific demonstrations training (vs. 0\% for pure SFT). Qualitative analysis reveals emergent capabilities absent in demonstrations, including error recovery and novel strategies. This work represents a critical step toward VLAs that truly learn and adapt, moving beyond static imitation toward continuous self-improvements.

Auto-regressive video generation enables long video synthesis by iteratively conditioning each new batch of frames on previously generated content. However, recent work has shown that such pipelines suffer from severe temporal drift, where errors accumulate and amplify over long horizons. We hypothesize that this drift does not primarily stem from insufficient model capacity, but rather from inference-time error propagation. Specifically, we contend that drift arises from the uncontrolled reuse of corrupted latent conditioning tokens during auto-regressive inference. To correct this accumulation of errors, we propose a simple, inference-time method that mitigates temporal drift by identifying and removing unstable latent tokens before they are reused for conditioning. For this purpose, we define unstable tokens as latent tokens whose representations deviate significantly from those of the previously generated batch, indicating potential corruption or semantic drift. By explicitly removing corrupted latent tokens from the auto-regressive context, rather than modifying entire spatial regions or model parameters, our method prevents unreliable latent information from influencing future generation steps. As a result, it significantly improves long-horizon temporal consistency without modifying the model architecture, training procedure, or leaving latent space.

Computer-use agents (CUAs) that interact with real computer systems can perform automated tasks but face critical safety risks. Ambiguous instructions may trigger harmful actions, and adversarial users can manipulate tool execution to achieve malicious goals. Existing benchmarks mostly focus on short-horizon or GUI-based tasks, evaluating on execution-time errors but overlooking the ability to anticipate planning-time risks. To fill this gap, we present LPS-Bench, a benchmark that evaluates the planning-time safety awareness of MCP-based CUAs under long-horizon tasks, covering both benign and adversarial interactions across 65 scenarios of 7 task domains and 9 risk types. We introduce a multi-agent automated pipeline for scalable data generation and adopt an LLM-as-a-judge evaluation protocol to assess safety awareness through the planning trajectory. Experiments reveal substantial deficiencies in existing CUAs' ability to maintain safe behavior. We further analyze the risks and propose mitigation strategies to improve long-horizon planning safety in MCP-based CUA systems. We open-source our code at https://github.com/tychenn/LPS-Bench.

Embodied LLMs endow robots with high-level task reasoning, but they cannot reflect on what went wrong or why, turning deployment into a sequence of independent trials where mistakes repeat rather than accumulate into experience. Drawing upon human reflective practitioners, we introduce Reflective Test-Time Planning, which integrates two modes of reflection: reflection-in-action, where the agent uses test-time scaling to generate and score multiple candidate actions using internal reflections before execution; and reflection-on-action, which uses test-time training to update both its internal reflection model and its action policy based on external reflections after execution. We also include retrospective reflection, allowing the agent to re-evaluate earlier decisions and perform model updates with hindsight for proper long-horizon credit assignment. Experiments on our newly-designed Long-Horizon Household benchmark and MuJoCo Cupboard Fitting benchmark show significant gains over baseline models, with ablative studies validating the complementary roles of reflection-in-action and reflection-on-action. Qualitative analyses, including real-robot trials, highlight behavioral correction through reflection.

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

We introduce Sparse Forcing, a training-and-inference paradigm for autoregressive video diffusion models that improves long-horizon generation quality while reducing decoding latency. Sparse Forcing is motivated by an empirical observation in autoregressive diffusion rollouts: attention concentrates on a persistent subset of salient visual blocks, forming an implicit spatiotemporal memory in the KV cache, and exhibits a locally structured block-sparse pattern within sliding windows. Building on this observation, we propose a trainable native sparsity mechanism that learns to compress, preserve, and update these persistent blocks while restricting computation within each local window to a dynamically selected local neighborhood. To make the approach practical at scale for both training and inference, we further propose Persistent Block-Sparse Attention (PBSA), an efficient GPU kernel that accelerates sparse attention and memory updates for low-latency, memory-efficient decoding. Experiments show that Sparse Forcing improves the VBench score by +0.26 over Self-Forcing on 5-second text-to-video generation while delivering a 1.11-1.17x decoding speedup and 42% lower peak KV-cache footprint. The gains are more pronounced on longer-horizon rollouts, delivering improved visual quality with +0.68 and +2.74 VBench improvements, and 1.22x and 1.27x speedups on 20-second and 1-minute generations, respectively.

Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts. Yet existing benchmarks for frontier models primarily evaluate either single-turn responses or short-horizon agent trajectories, failing to capture the challenges of sustained iterative improvement over extended time horizons. To address this gap, we introduce AutoLab, a new benchmark for ultra long-horizon closed-loop optimization. AutoLab consists of 36 realistic, expert-curated tasks spanning four diverse domains: system optimization, puzzle & challenge, model development, and CUDA kernel optimization. Each task begins with a correct but deliberately suboptimal baseline and challenges agents to improve it within a strict wall-clock budget. Evaluating 17 state-of-the-art models reveals the dominant predictor of success is not the quality of an agent's initial attempt, but its persistence in repeatedly benchmarking, editing, and incorporating empirical feedback. While claude-opus-4.6 exhibits strong long-horizon optimization capabilities, most frontier models, including several proprietary ones, either terminate prematurely or exhaust their budgets with minimal progress. These results underscore the importance of time awareness and persistent iteration in autonomous agents. We open-source the full benchmark, evaluation harness, and task artifacts, to accelerate research toward truly capable long-horizon agents.

Autoregressive video synthesis offers a promising pathway for infinite-horizon generation but is fundamentally hindered by three intertwined challenges: semantic forgetting from context limitations, visual drift due to positional extrapolation, and controllability loss during interactive instruction switching. Current methods often tackle these issues in isolation, limiting long-term coherence. We introduce Grounded Forcing, a novel framework that bridges time-independent semantics and proximal dynamics through three interlocking mechanisms. First, to address semantic forgetting, we propose a Dual Memory KV Cache that decouples local temporal dynamics from global semantic anchors, ensuring long-term semantic coherence and identity stability. Second, to suppress visual drift, we design Dual-Reference RoPE Injection, which confines positional embeddings within the training manifold while rendering global semantics time-invariant. Third, to resolve controllability issues, we develop Asymmetric Proximity Recache, which facilitates smooth semantic inheritance during prompt transitions via proximity-weighted cache updates. These components operate synergistically to tether the generative process to stable semantic cores while accommodating flexible local dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Grounded Forcing significantly enhances long-range consistency and visual stability, establishing a robust foundation for interactive long-form video synthesis.

Despite the remarkable progress of Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs), current online architectures still struggle to simultaneously process continuous video streams, decide autonomously when to respond, and preserve long-horizon contextual memory. These obstacles undermine real-time responsiveness and cause severe forgetting throughout prolonged interactions. In this work, we introduce LiveStarPro, a live streaming assistant that is designed for proactive video understanding over long-horizon streams. The design of LiveStarPro rests on three complementary components. The first component is Streaming Verification Decoding (SVeD), an inference framework that identifies the appropriate response timing through single-pass perplexity verification, thereby eliminating the dependency on explicit silence tokens. The second component is Streaming Causal Attention Masks (SCAM), a training strategy that enforces incremental video-language alignment over variable-length streams. The third component is Tree-Structured Hierarchical Memory (TSHM), a recursive memory architecture that organizes evicted historical information into event chains and consequently enables efficient retrieval from effectively unbounded video streams. To facilitate a comprehensive evaluation under realistic online conditions, we further present OmniStarPro, a large-scale benchmark that spans 15 diverse real-world scenarios and that extends to hour-scale streams for the assessment of long-term recall. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LiveStarPro consistently surpasses existing methods, attaining a 28.9% improvement in semantic correctness and an 18.2% reduction in timing error, while its streaming key-value cache further yields a 1.58x inference speedup over the same model without caching. The model and the code are publicly available at https://github.com/sotayang/LiveStarPro.

Long-horizon robot manipulation requires a robot to both execute individual skills reliably and sequence them coherently over extended tasks. Most hierarchical vision-language-action (VLA) models make each such decision with a single forward pass, leaving no mechanism to allocate additional computation to difficult or consequential choices. We introduce τ_0-VLA, a hierarchical robot foundation model that formulates high-level subtask generation as a compute-scalable inference problem through world-model-guided test-time computation. At each inference step, the high-level policy uses execution memory to generate a subtask and, when needed, searches over alternatives before committing to its output. A low-level policy then executes the generated subtask across multiple robot embodiments. The policy is trained on 40,115 hours of heterogeneous real-world data with multimodal co-training. Across in-domain and distribution-shifted settings, allocating additional test-time computation substantially improves next-subtask prediction accuracy, and these gains translate into higher closed-loop success on long-horizon robot manipulation tasks.

Real-time long-form avatar audio-video generation requires causal, continuous synthesis while maintaining audiovisual synchronization and visual consistency. Adapting a pretrained bidirectional model to this setting presents two key dilemmas. First, autoregressively reusing generated blocks as context creates exposure bias, causing errors and visual drift to accumulate over long rollouts. Second, a global speech utterance does not indicates a causal generator which portion should be spoken next when only limited local audio-video context is available. We present Vorch-Streamer, a post-training framework that addresses these challenges and enables real-time long-form Text-to-Audio-Video (T2AV) streaming. We construct a synthetic corpus of 80K avatar clips spanning 12-21 seconds and first train a causal generator with mixed Teacher Forcing and Diffusion Forcing. We then apply long-horizon Self Forcing with DMD distillation, exposing the model to its own rollout distribution while preserving the quality of the pretrained bidirectional teacher. To explicitly control speech progression, an external language model predicts discrete 25-Hz speech-planning tokens, whose continuous features condition the audio diffusion branch and align each causal block with the content it should speak. With bounded causal context and four-step denoising, Vorch-Streamer jointly generates audio and video from text at 27.12 FPS, exceeding the 24-FPS real-time playback rate while maintaining competitive audio-lip synchronization and strong identity preservation over long-form generation.

Generative world models offer controllable and repeatable closed-loop simulation for end-to-end and vision-language-action driving policies, but production deployment exposes three unresolved requirements: faithfully reproducing a mixed fisheye-pinhole rig at native resolutions; reconciling causal, per-timestep interaction with long-horizon stability and low latency; and preserving scene identity when a location is revisited. We present ZYT-World, a single architecture that natively generates four fisheye views with field of view > 180° and three pinhole views. Projection-specific Plucker adapters encode camera geometry, ego-motion adaptive layer normalization provides global motion control, and a lightweight pixel-aligned layout conditions traffic participants and signals through instance-level boxes, headings and colors. Heterogeneous training combines full-rig geometric coverage with high-resolution detail. Teacher forcing, causal consistency distillation, self-rollout distribution matching distillation, and RigCritic transform a 40-step bidirectional teacher into a one-step, per-latent streaming generator, with RigCritic evaluating the seven-view rig jointly. A 19M-parameter variational autoencoder decoder (TinyVAE), W8A8 quantization, and our inference engine reduce decoding, backbone, and incremental-execution costs, respectively. Finally, cross-trajectory pairs derived from real captures train a plug-in implicit-memory module that preserves place-specific evidence. On the internal multi-view test set, the one-step model retains more than 90% of the teacher's PSNR and SSIM, while FID, FVD, and LPIPS stay within 11% of the teacher. Under the generator-only timing in Figure 2, it is 107.7 times faster than the 40-step bidirectional teacher. TinyVAE decodes 59.8 times faster than Wan. 30s rollouts and cross-trajectory revisits show the intended long-horizon and memory behavior.

Large language model (LLM) agents can now undertake increasingly complex tasks, but the way they organize interaction history into memory does not ensure a coherent understanding of the current world. We introduce PoS, an inference-time framework that constructs and continually maintains explicit belief states as the agent's decision context. Each belief combines an estimate of the current world state with unresolved task requirements, making explicit what the agent still needs to learn and accomplish. To keep this belief reliable and actionable, PoS validates its consistency and monitors task progress to detect Belief Trapping, where the agent continues to act without making meaningful progress toward the goal. Recovery is then tailored to both the trapping pattern and the type of unresolved task requirement. Experiments on four benchmarks spanning execution and diagnosis show that PoS achieves the highest overall performance on every benchmark with all three LLM backbones. Ablations demonstrate the importance of consistency validation and recovery, while context-scaling experiments show resilience to context growth. Together, these results support belief construction and continual maintenance as a foundation for long-horizon context management beyond history retention and compression.

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) has outpaced the evolution of single-GPU hardware, making model scale increasingly constrained by memory capacity rather than computation. While modern training systems extend GPU memory through distributed parallelism and offloading across CPU and storage tiers, they fundamentally retain a GPU-centric execution paradigm in which GPUs host persistent model replicas and full autograd graphs. As a result, scaling large models remains tightly coupled to multi-GPU clusters, complex distributed runtimes, and unpredictable host memory consumption, creating substantial barriers for node-scale post-training workloads such as instruction tuning, alignment, and domain adaptation. We present Horizon-LM, a memory-centric training system that redefines the roles of CPU and GPU for large-model optimization. Horizon-LM treats host memory as the authoritative parameter store and uses GPUs solely as transient compute engines through a CPU-master, GPU-template execution model. By eliminating persistent GPU-resident modules and autograd graphs, employing explicit recomputation with manual gradient propagation, and introducing a pipelined double-buffered execution engine, Horizon-LM decouples model scale from GPU count and bounds memory usage to the theoretical parameter footprint. On a single H200 GPU with 1.5\,TB host RAM, Horizon-LM reliably trains models up to 120B parameters. On a standard single A100 machine, Horizon-LM achieves up to 12.2times higher training throughput than DeepSpeed ZeRO-3 with CPU offloading while preserving numerical correctness. Across platforms and scales, Horizon-LM sustains high device utilization and predictable memory growth, demonstrating that host memory, not GPU memory, defines the true feasibility boundary for node-scale large-model training.

Long-horizon role-playing demands that characters remain recognizable as they evolve with the narrative. Yet existing work falls short on two fronts: representations are typically static profiles that cannot be updated locally without destabilizing unchanged traits, and benchmarks mainly test persona preservation and memory recall rather than whether a model speaks from a character's currently evolved state. We address both. PHASE-Tree is a multi-timescale character-state tree with an immutable identity root and mutable persona, session, and moment layers, making each mutable field an addressable target for localized within- and cross-episode updates. It conditions generation through explicit textual provision or implicit parametric adaptation. To measure evolved-state generation, we introduce LongEvoRoleBench, which pairs four long-dialogue corpora for cross-episode evolution with four short-dialogue corpora as within-scene state-tracking checks, under a unified next-utterance protocol. On the long-dialogue core, textual PHASE-Tree ranks first in 11 of 12 dataset-metric cells against internal variants and all 12 cells against external textual baselines, improving character-level, semantic, and embedding scores by 19.7%, 12.4%, and 15.1% respectively. In a blinded 200-response study, human ratings correlate with the GPT-4.1 judge (Pearson r= 0.65); on descriptive n= 10 PT and NR prompt subsets, the Overall difference is +0.20. The long-dialogue Sem advantage persists across LLM judges and generation backbones.

Real-world robotic tasks stretch over extended horizons and encompass multiple stages. Learning long-horizon manipulation tasks, however, is a long-standing challenge, and demands decomposing the overarching task into several manageable subtasks to facilitate policy learning and generalization to unseen tasks. Prior task decomposition methods require task-specific knowledge, are computationally intensive, and cannot readily be applied to new tasks. To address these shortcomings, we propose Universal Visual Decomposer (UVD), an off-the-shelf task decomposition method for visual long horizon manipulation using pre-trained visual representations designed for robotic control. At a high level, UVD discovers subgoals by detecting phase shifts in the embedding space of the pre-trained representation. Operating purely on visual demonstrations without auxiliary information, UVD can effectively extract visual subgoals embedded in the videos, while incurring zero additional training cost on top of standard visuomotor policy training. Goal-conditioned policies learned with UVD-discovered subgoals exhibit significantly improved compositional generalization at test time to unseen tasks. Furthermore, UVD-discovered subgoals can be used to construct goal-based reward shaping that jump-starts temporally extended exploration for reinforcement learning. We extensively evaluate UVD on both simulation and real-world tasks, and in all cases, UVD substantially outperforms baselines across imitation and reinforcement learning settings on in-domain and out-of-domain task sequences alike, validating the clear advantage of automated visual task decomposition within the simple, compact UVD framework.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

Streaming video generation, as one fundamental component in interactive world models and neural game engines, aims to generate high-quality, low-latency, and temporally coherent long video streams. However, most existing work suffers from severe error accumulation that often significantly degrades the generated stream videos over long horizons. We design Rolling Forcing, a novel video generation technique that enables streaming long videos with minimal error accumulation. Rolling Forcing comes with three novel designs. First, instead of iteratively sampling individual frames, which accelerates error propagation, we design a joint denoising scheme that simultaneously denoises multiple frames with progressively increasing noise levels. This design relaxes the strict causality across adjacent frames, effectively suppressing error growth. Second, we introduce the attention sink mechanism into the long-horizon stream video generation task, which allows the model to keep key value states of initial frames as a global context anchor and thereby enhances long-term global consistency. Third, we design an efficient training algorithm that enables few-step distillation over largely extended denoising windows. This algorithm operates on non-overlapping windows and mitigates exposure bias conditioned on self-generated histories. Extensive experiments show that Rolling Forcing enables real-time streaming generation of multi-minute videos on a single GPU, with substantially reduced error accumulation.

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents TempoPFN, a univariate time series foundation model based on linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) pre-trained exclusively on synthetic data. The model uses a GatedDeltaProduct architecture with state-weaving for fully parallelizable training across sequence lengths, eliminating the need for windowing or summarization techniques while maintaining robust temporal state-tracking. Our comprehensive synthetic data pipeline unifies diverse generators, including stochastic differential equations, Gaussian processes, and audio synthesis, with novel augmentations. In zero-shot evaluations on the Gift-Eval benchmark, TempoPFN achieves top-tier competitive performance, outperforming all existing synthetic-only approaches and surpassing the vast majority of models trained on real-world data, while being more efficient than existing baselines by leveraging fully parallelizable training and inference. We open-source our complete data generation pipeline and training code, providing a reproducible foundation for future research.

Existing diffusion-based video generation methods are fundamentally constrained by sequential computation and long-horizon inconsistency, limiting their practical adoption in real-time, streaming audio-driven avatar synthesis. We present Live Avatar, an algorithm-system co-designed framework that enables efficient, high-fidelity, and infinite-length avatar generation using a 14-billion-parameter diffusion model. Our approach introduces Timestep-forcing Pipeline Parallelism (TPP), a distributed inference paradigm that pipelines denoising steps across multiple GPUs, effectively breaking the autoregressive bottleneck and ensuring stable, low-latency real-time streaming. To further enhance temporal consistency and mitigate identity drift and color artifacts, we propose the Rolling Sink Frame Mechanism (RSFM), which maintains sequence fidelity by dynamically recalibrating appearance using a cached reference image. Additionally, we leverage Self-Forcing Distribution Matching Distillation to facilitate causal, streamable adaptation of large-scale models without sacrificing visual quality. Live Avatar demonstrates state-of-the-art performance, reaching 20 FPS end-to-end generation on 5 H800 GPUs, and, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to achieve practical, real-time, high-fidelity avatar generation at this scale. Our work establishes a new paradigm for deploying advanced diffusion models in industrial long-form video synthesis applications.

Fast, geometry-generalizing surrogates for unsteady flow remain challenging. We present a time-dependent, geometry-aware Deep Operator Network that predicts velocity fields for moderate-Re flows around parametric and non-parametric shapes. The model encodes geometry via a signed distance field (SDF) trunk and flow history via a CNN branch, trained on 841 high-fidelity simulations. On held-out shapes, it attains sim 5% relative L2 single-step error and up to 1000X speedups over CFD. We provide physics-centric rollout diagnostics, including phase error at probes and divergence norms, to quantify long-horizon fidelity. These reveal accurate near-term transients but error accumulation in fine-scale wakes, most pronounced for sharp-cornered geometries. We analyze failure modes and outline practical mitigations. Code, splits, and scripts are openly released at: https://github.com/baskargroup/TimeDependent-DeepONet to support reproducibility and benchmarking.