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Oct 14

FLUX-Makeup: High-Fidelity, Identity-Consistent, and Robust Makeup Transfer via Diffusion Transformer

Makeup transfer aims to apply the makeup style from a reference face to a target face and has been increasingly adopted in practical applications. Existing GAN-based approaches typically rely on carefully designed loss functions to balance transfer quality and facial identity consistency, while diffusion-based methods often depend on additional face-control modules or algorithms to preserve identity. However, these auxiliary components tend to introduce extra errors, leading to suboptimal transfer results. To overcome these limitations, we propose FLUX-Makeup, a high-fidelity, identity-consistent, and robust makeup transfer framework that eliminates the need for any auxiliary face-control components. Instead, our method directly leverages source-reference image pairs to achieve superior transfer performance. Specifically, we build our framework upon FLUX-Kontext, using the source image as its native conditional input. Furthermore, we introduce RefLoRAInjector, a lightweight makeup feature injector that decouples the reference pathway from the backbone, enabling efficient and comprehensive extraction of makeup-related information. In parallel, we design a robust and scalable data generation pipeline to provide more accurate supervision during training. The paired makeup datasets produced by this pipeline significantly surpass the quality of all existing datasets. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FLUX-Makeup achieves state-of-the-art performance, exhibiting strong robustness across diverse scenarios.

  • 12 authors
·
Aug 7, 2025

Does FLUX Already Know How to Perform Physically Plausible Image Composition?

Image composition aims to seamlessly insert a user-specified object into a new scene, but existing models struggle with complex lighting (e.g., accurate shadows, water reflections) and diverse, high-resolution inputs. Modern text-to-image diffusion models (e.g., SD3.5, FLUX) already encode essential physical and resolution priors, yet lack a framework to unleash them without resorting to latent inversion, which often locks object poses into contextually inappropriate orientations, or brittle attention surgery. We propose SHINE, a training-free framework for Seamless, High-fidelity Insertion with Neutralized Errors. SHINE introduces manifold-steered anchor loss, leveraging pretrained customization adapters (e.g., IP-Adapter) to guide latents for faithful subject representation while preserving background integrity. Degradation-suppression guidance and adaptive background blending are proposed to further eliminate low-quality outputs and visible seams. To address the lack of rigorous benchmarks, we introduce ComplexCompo, featuring diverse resolutions and challenging conditions such as low lighting, strong illumination, intricate shadows, and reflective surfaces. Experiments on ComplexCompo and DreamEditBench show state-of-the-art performance on standard metrics (e.g., DINOv2) and human-aligned scores (e.g., DreamSim, ImageReward, VisionReward). Code and benchmark will be publicly available upon publication.

amerta: A Python Library for Idealized 1D Saint--Venant Dam-Break Simulation

The Saint-Venant shallow water equations (SWE) govern depth-integrated free-surface flows arising in dam-break inundation, flood routing, tsunami runup, and estuarine tidal dynamics. Closed-form analytical solutions exist only for highly idealized Riemann configurations, making rigorously verified numerical solvers essential. This work presents amerta, an open-source Python library that solves the one-dimensional frictionless Saint-Venant system on a uniform Cartesian grid using Monotone Upstream-centered Schemes for Conservation Laws (MUSCL) reconstruction with a minmod slope limiter, the Harten-Lax-van Leer-Contact (HLLC) approximate Riemann solver, and two-stage strong-stability-preserving Runge-Kutta (SSP-RK) time integration. Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation accelerates the performance-critical kernels. The solver is verified end-to-end against the four canonical Riemann configurations: wet-bed dam break, dry-bed dam break, double rarefaction, and double shock. A six-component post-processing pipeline quantifies space-time topology, final-time error norms with empirical quantile decomposition, self-similarity collapse onto the analytical Riemann fan, integral-norm evolution, boundary-flux-corrected mass and energy diagnostics, and phase-plane analysis against analytical wave curves. The implementation conserves discrete mass to floating-point precision, satisfies discrete entropy admissibility identically, and reproduces all four analytical wave-curve geometries to within sub-centimetre accuracy in the depth-velocity phase plane. The complete source code, analytical-solution evaluators, post-processing scripts, and Network Common Data Format (NetCDF) archives are released under the MIT license.

  • 9 authors
·
May 28

3DIS-FLUX: simple and efficient multi-instance generation with DiT rendering

The growing demand for controllable outputs in text-to-image generation has driven significant advancements in multi-instance generation (MIG), enabling users to define both instance layouts and attributes. Currently, the state-of-the-art methods in MIG are primarily adapter-based. However, these methods necessitate retraining a new adapter each time a more advanced model is released, resulting in significant resource consumption. A methodology named Depth-Driven Decoupled Instance Synthesis (3DIS) has been introduced, which decouples MIG into two distinct phases: 1) depth-based scene construction and 2) detail rendering with widely pre-trained depth control models. The 3DIS method requires adapter training solely during the scene construction phase, while enabling various models to perform training-free detail rendering. Initially, 3DIS focused on rendering techniques utilizing U-Net architectures such as SD1.5, SD2, and SDXL, without exploring the potential of recent DiT-based models like FLUX. In this paper, we present 3DIS-FLUX, an extension of the 3DIS framework that integrates the FLUX model for enhanced rendering capabilities. Specifically, we employ the FLUX.1-Depth-dev model for depth map controlled image generation and introduce a detail renderer that manipulates the Attention Mask in FLUX's Joint Attention mechanism based on layout information. This approach allows for the precise rendering of fine-grained attributes of each instance. Our experimental results indicate that 3DIS-FLUX, leveraging the FLUX model, outperforms the original 3DIS method, which utilized SD2 and SDXL, and surpasses current state-of-the-art adapter-based methods in terms of both performance and image quality. Project Page: https://limuloo.github.io/3DIS/.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 9, 2025 2

Open-source Flux Transport (OFT). I. HipFT -- High-performance Flux Transport

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 10, 2025

FLUX-Reason-6M & PRISM-Bench: A Million-Scale Text-to-Image Reasoning Dataset and Comprehensive Benchmark

The advancement of open-source text-to-image (T2I) models has been hindered by the absence of large-scale, reasoning-focused datasets and comprehensive evaluation benchmarks, resulting in a performance gap compared to leading closed-source systems. To address this challenge, We introduce FLUX-Reason-6M and PRISM-Bench (Precise and Robust Image Synthesis Measurement Benchmark). FLUX-Reason-6M is a massive dataset consisting of 6 million high-quality FLUX-generated images and 20 million bilingual (English and Chinese) descriptions specifically designed to teach complex reasoning. The image are organized according to six key characteristics: Imagination, Entity, Text rendering, Style, Affection, and Composition, and design explicit Generation Chain-of-Thought (GCoT) to provide detailed breakdowns of image generation steps. The whole data curation takes 15,000 A100 GPU days, providing the community with a resource previously unattainable outside of large industrial labs. PRISM-Bench offers a novel evaluation standard with seven distinct tracks, including a formidable Long Text challenge using GCoT. Through carefully designed prompts, it utilizes advanced vision-language models for nuanced human-aligned assessment of prompt-image alignment and image aesthetics. Our extensive evaluation of 19 leading models on PRISM-Bench reveals critical performance gaps and highlights specific areas requiring improvement. Our dataset, benchmark, and evaluation code are released to catalyze the next wave of reasoning-oriented T2I generation. Project page: https://flux-reason-6m.github.io/ .

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 11, 2025 2

Interpretable structural model error discovery from sparse assimilation increments using spectral bias-reduced neural networks: A quasi-geostrophic turbulence test case

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2023

FluxNet: Learning Capacity-Constrained Local Transport Operators for Conservative and Bounded PDE Surrogates

Autoregressive learning of time-stepping operators provides an effective approach to data-driven partial differential equation (PDE) simulation, yet for conservation laws, they face a fundamental challenge: learned updates may violate global conservation over long rollouts. For the important subclass of mass-conservation-type equations, the problem is compounded by inherent physical bounds (e.g., nonnegativity or concentrations in [0,1]) whose violation further destabilizes predictions. We introduce FluxNet, which learns cumulative transport amounts representing the total conserved quantity redistributed between each cell and a configurable neighborhood over the full surrogate interval. A conservative update guarantees exact discrete conservation by construction; modular capacity-constrained transport heads (L, U, and D) enforce lower bounds, upper bounds, or near-zero dual-bound violations through architectural design. Unlike flux-rate surrogates that require temporal integration and thus inherit CFL constraints, FluxNet involves no such integration; configurable transport neighborhoods enable large-timestep prediction at full spatial resolution. Ghost cells extend the framework to non-periodic boundaries. Experiments on four benchmarks (1D convection--diffusion, 2D shallow water, 1D traffic flow, 2D Cahn--Hilliard) demonstrate exact conservation, structural bound preservation, architecture modularity, and superior stability over flux-rate surrogates at large temporal strides. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Lan-zs/FluxNet.

  • 4 authors
·
May 25

Discovery of interpretable structural model errors by combining Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation: A chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky test case

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 1, 2021

Balancing Computational Efficiency and Forecast Error in Machine Learning-based Time-Series Forecasting: Insights from Live Experiments on Meteorological Nowcasting

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 26, 2023

Composite stacks for reliable > 17 T trapped fields in bulk superconductor magnets

Trapped fields of over 20 T are, in principle, achievable in bulk, single-grain high temperature cuprate superconductors. The principle barriers to realizing such performance are, firstly, the large tensile stresses that develop during the magnetization of such trapped-field magnets as a result of the Lorentz force, which lead to brittle fracture of these ceramic-like materials at high fields and, secondly, catastrophic thermal instabilities as a result of flux movement during magnetization. Moreover, for a batch of samples nominally fabricated identically, the statistical nature of the failure mechanism means the best performance (i.e. trapped fields of over 17 T) cannot be attained reliably. The magnetization process, particularly to higher fields, also often damages the samples such that they cannot repeatedly trap high fields following subsequent magnetization. In this study, we report the sequential trapping of magnetic fields of ~ 17 T, achieving 16.8 T at 26 K initially and 17.6 T at 22.5 K subsequently, in a stack of two Ag-doped GdBa2Cu3O7-δ bulk superconductor composites of diameter 24 mm reinforced with (1) stainless-steel laminations, and (2) shrink-fit stainless steel rings. A trapped field of 17.6 T is, in fact, comparable with the highest trapped fields reported to date for bulk superconducting magnets of any mechanical and chemical composition, and this was achieved using the first composite stack to be fabricated by this technique.

  • 13 authors
·
Aug 22, 2019

Real-Time Prediction of Gas Flow Dynamics in Diesel Engines using a Deep Neural Operator Framework

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 2, 2023

X-ray Observations of Nova Scorpii 2023 (V1716 Sco) in Outburst

Nova Scorpii 2023 was first detected as a luminous supersoft X-ray source (SSS) 93 days after outburst and continued emitting soft X-rays for over two months, until it was too close to the Sun to observe. The nova was monitored with the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) on the International Space Station, and in long exposures with the Chandra High Resolution Camera (HRC) and Low Energy Transmission Grating (LETG) on days 128, 129, and 183-185 after optical maximum. Swift detected a rapidly decaying SSS when observations resumed, constraining the constant bolometric luminosity phase to 9 months. The SSS flux was irregularly variable. A nearly three-fold increase in flux was observed between August and October 2023 in the 15 to 35 Angstrom range, from 3.5 x 10^(-11) to 9.4 x 10^(-11) erg cm^(-2) s^(-1). The SSS duration and effective temperature derived from the October LETG spectra indicate a massive white dwarf with temperature fitting nova evolutionary tracks for a 1.2 solar mass WD; emission lines superimposed on the WD continuum are attributed to surrounding shocked ejecta. We present a timing study based on Chandra and archival NICER data. The irregular variability timescale was days, but a 77.9 second periodic modulation in the SSS flux with varying amplitude was measured in many observations. Our analysis shows that this period was stable; short drifts derived with NICER, but not in long, uninterrupted Chandra exposures, are artifacts of measuring variable amplitude modulation. We suggest the modulations are associated with the WD rotation.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 21, 2025

ACE++: Instruction-Based Image Creation and Editing via Context-Aware Content Filling

We report ACE++, an instruction-based diffusion framework that tackles various image generation and editing tasks. Inspired by the input format for the inpainting task proposed by FLUX.1-Fill-dev, we improve the Long-context Condition Unit (LCU) introduced in ACE and extend this input paradigm to any editing and generation tasks. To take full advantage of image generative priors, we develop a two-stage training scheme to minimize the efforts of finetuning powerful text-to-image diffusion models like FLUX.1-dev. In the first stage, we pre-train the model using task data with the 0-ref tasks from the text-to-image model. There are many models in the community based on the post-training of text-to-image foundational models that meet this training paradigm of the first stage. For example, FLUX.1-Fill-dev deals primarily with painting tasks and can be used as an initialization to accelerate the training process. In the second stage, we finetune the above model to support the general instructions using all tasks defined in ACE. To promote the widespread application of ACE++ in different scenarios, we provide a comprehensive set of models that cover both full finetuning and lightweight finetuning, while considering general applicability and applicability in vertical scenarios. The qualitative analysis showcases the superiority of ACE++ in terms of generating image quality and prompt following ability.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 5, 2025

Fundamental physics with ESPRESSO: Precise limit on variations in the fine-structure constant towards the bright quasar HE 0515-4414

The strong intervening absorption system at redshift 1.15 towards the very bright quasar HE 0515-4414 is the most studied absorber for measuring possible cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant, α. We observed HE 0515-4414 for 16.1,h with the Very Large Telescope and present here the first constraint on relative variations in α with parts-per-million (ppm) precision from the new ESPRESSO spectrograph: Δα/α= 1.3 pm 1.3_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},{rm ppm}. The statistical uncertainty (1σ) is similar to the ensemble precision of previous large samples of absorbers, and derives from the high S/N achieved (approx105 per 0.4,km,s^{-1} pixel). ESPRESSO's design, and calibration of our observations with its laser frequency comb, effectively removed wavelength calibration errors from our measurement. The high resolving power of our ESPRESSO spectrum (R=145000) enabled the identification of very narrow components within the absorption profile, allowing a more robust analysis of Δα/α. The evidence for the narrow components is corroborated by their correspondence with previously detected molecular hydrogen and neutral carbon. The main remaining systematic errors arise from ambiguities in the absorption profile modelling, effects from redispersing the individual quasar exposures, and convergence of the parameter estimation algorithm. All analyses of the spectrum, including systematic error estimates, were initially blinded to avoid human biases. We make our reduced ESPRESSO spectrum of HE 0515-4414 publicly available for further analysis. Combining our ESPRESSO result with 28 measurements, from other spectrographs, in which wavelength calibration errors have been mitigated, yields a weighted mean Δα/α= -0.5 pm 0.5_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},ppm at redshifts 0.6-2.4.

  • 43 authors
·
Dec 9, 2021

Physics-Audited Agentic Discovery in Scientific Machine Learning

In agentic scientific machine learning (SciML), large language model (LLM) agents can discover surrogate models and select one by an automated score, typically an error metric. A low error, however, does not establish that the predicted fields satisfy the physics that matter for mechanics, such as boundary conditions, superposition, stiffness scaling, or causality. We introduce Physics-Audited Agentic SciML (PA-SciML), a verification-first workflow for agentic SciML discovery. The workflow fixes a scoring evaluator before search, derives reviewable machine-checkable physics requirements, checks each trained candidate on its outputs, and separately searches prescribed input ranges or measured load-history spans for high-violation cases without reference solution fields. A surrogate is reported as verified only under the stated checks. When enabled, the workflow also adds advisory numerical probes before training and tests one modeling change at a time to record which isolated edits are associated with score gains before reuse. In the reported computational-solid-mechanics numerical examples, the static elasticity run selects a surrogate with lower validation error than the error-only baseline while both selected models pass the common linear-elastic checks. In the transient elastodynamics run, an error-only baseline with similar mean error fails a stricter causality check by responding to future parts of the loading history, while the selected surrogate passes the stated checks. The main distinction is per-candidate physics evidence on predicted fields, not a richer aggregate score.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 7

AEGIS: Automated Error Generation and Identification for Multi-Agent Systems

As Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) become increasingly autonomous and complex, understanding their error modes is critical for ensuring their reliability and safety. However, research in this area has been severely hampered by the lack of large-scale, diverse datasets with precise, ground-truth error labels. To address this bottleneck, we introduce AEGIS, a novel framework for Automated Error Generation and Identification for Multi-Agent Systems. By systematically injecting controllable and traceable errors into initially successful trajectories, we create a rich dataset of realistic failures. This is achieved using a context-aware, LLM-based adaptive manipulator that performs sophisticated attacks like prompt injection and response corruption to induce specific, predefined error modes. We demonstrate the value of our dataset by exploring three distinct learning paradigms for the error identification task: Supervised Fine-Tuning, Reinforcement Learning, and Contrastive Learning. Our comprehensive experiments show that models trained on AEGIS data achieve substantial improvements across all three learning paradigms. Notably, several of our fine-tuned models demonstrate performance competitive with or superior to proprietary systems an order of magnitude larger, validating our automated data generation framework as a crucial resource for developing more robust and interpretable multi-agent systems. Our project website is available at https://kfq20.github.io/AEGIS-Website.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 16, 2025

The Impact of High-Resolution Soil Moisture States on Short-Term Numerical Weather Prediction of Convective Initiation over South Africa

The interaction between the Earths surface and the atmosphere plays a key role in the initiation of cumulus convection. Over the land surface, a necessary boundary condition to consider for resolving land-atmosphere interactions is soil moisture. The aim in the study is twofold. One, through object oriented and traditional verification techniques determine how higher resolution soil moisture initial conditions influences the prediction of the location and timing of convective initiation (CI) within a convective permitting, operational NWP model over South Africa. Two, to study the modelled CI-soil moisture relationship during real afternoon thunderstorm events. The study reports the results from 66 Unified Model simulations (at 4.4km grid resolution) for nine summer afternoon CI events during synoptically benign conditions over South Africa. The higher resolution soil moisture conditions reduce centroid distance between observed and forecast storms on average by 7km (9 percent improvement), with the most decrease in centroid distance occurring at the shortest lead times, by 12km. Most improvement in location error occurs in the zonal directional. However, little to no difference is found in the timing of CI, most likely attributable to the dominant effect of model grid size on CI timing, overshadowing the influence from soil moisture anomalies. Probability of CI is highest over dry and moderate soils and areas along distinct soil moisture gradients. The conclusion is that modelled CI over South Africa preferentially occurs on the periphery of wet soil moisture patches, where there is increased surface convergence of wind and higher sensible heat flux.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 5, 2021