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Oct 16

Who Prices Cognitive Labor in the Age of Agents? Compute-Anchored Wages

A natural intuition about the economics of AI agents is that, because agents can be replicated at very low marginal cost, agent labor may be supplied highly elastically, placing downward pressure on cognitive-labor wages when it closely substitutes for human labor. We argue this framing is wrong in mechanism but partially correct in conclusion, and that the correction matters for both theory and policy. Agents are not labor; they are a production technology that converts compute capital K_c into effective units of cognitive labor L_A. Once this is recognized, the elastic-supply margin that anchors the equilibrium wage migrates from the labor market to the compute capital market. Building on the classic factor-pricing framework mankiw2020, we derive a Compute-Anchored Wage (CAW) bound stating that, on tasks where human and agent-produced cognitive labor are substitutes, the competitive human wage is bounded above by λcdot k cdot r_c, where r_c is the rental rate of compute capital, k is the compute intensity of one effective agent-produced cognitive labor unit, and λ is the relative human-to-agent productivity. We generalize the result through constant elasticity of substitution (CES) aggregation, separate substitutable from complementary tasks, and discuss factor-share consequences. The conclusion is concise: the price-setter for cognitive labor is no longer the labor market.

Anchored Decoding: Provably Reducing Copyright Risk for Any Language Model

Modern language models (LMs) tend to memorize portions of their training data and emit verbatim spans. When the underlying sources are sensitive or copyright-protected, such reproduction raises issues of consent and compensation for creators and compliance risks for developers. We propose Anchored Decoding, a plug-and-play inference-time method for suppressing verbatim copying: it enables decoding from any risky LM trained on mixed-license data by keeping generation in bounded proximity to a permissively trained safe LM. Anchored Decoding adaptively allocates a user-chosen information budget over the generation trajectory and enforces per-step constraints that yield a sequence-level guarantee, enabling a tunable risk-utility trade-off. To make Anchored Decoding practically useful, we introduce a new permissively trained safe model (TinyComma 1.8B), as well as Anchored_{Byte} Decoding, a byte-level variant of our method that enables cross-vocabulary fusion via the ByteSampler framework (Hayase et al., 2025). We evaluate our methods across six model pairs on long-form evaluations of copyright risk and utility. Anchored and Anchored_{Byte} Decoding define a new Pareto frontier, preserving near-original fluency and factuality while eliminating up to 75% of the measurable copying gap (averaged over six copying metrics) between the risky baseline and a safe reference, at a modest inference overhead.

Transforms for LLM Quantization: The Great Inversion and Format Co-Design

Most competitive 4-bit LLM research pipelines now open the same way: apply a linear, function-preserving transform (rotation, scaling, permutation, non-orthogonal affine) so the outlier mass sits more favorably against the group scales, and only then round. Yet we are aware of no survey dedicated to this transform stage, and its literature is quietly re-deriving an older theory. We identify and formalize the principle that organizes it, the Great Inversion: allocation-flexible coding rewards energy concentration, whereas the grouped shared-scale quantization a deployed matrix instruction performs rewards within-group flattening. Classical transform coding (1963: decorrelate, allocate bits, quantize) spends different bits per coordinate at a fixed total rate; for a Gaussian source at high rate the Karhunen-Loeve transform's concentration minimizes distortion. A deployed operand tile instead carries one absolute-maximum scale per group and equal bits everywhere, with no allocation; on a uniform grid that objective rewards flattening, approached by Hadamard incoherence. We prove that opposition under within-group majorization: the prescriptions point in opposite directions, each backed by a proof against its own objective, and for a generic spectrum no optimality guarantee transfers. A second axis is the number format: the non-uniform FP4 grid makes flattening buy less, MXFP4's power-of-two block scale still rewards a rotation confined to that block, and NVFP4's mantissa-carrying scale largely removes that pull, so the target pole depends jointly on allocation regime and format. We survey 200 works to a June 2026 cutoff; classify 43 transform methods by structure, data-awareness, searched-versus-constructed, and runtime cost; record, where reported, how they compose with GPTQ rounding; distill a first-choice guide by deployment regime; and close with the open problems it exposes.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 24

Can AI Freelancers Compete? Benchmarking Earnings, Reliability, and Task Success at Scale

This study explores Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents for real-world tasks, including freelance software development. This work presents a new benchmark that evaluates LLMs on freelance programming and data analysis tasks derived from economic data. We construct the benchmark using synthetic tasks created from a Kaggle Freelancer dataset of job postings, with all job prices standardized to USD (median fixed-project price around 250, and an average of 306). Each task is accompanied by structured input-output test cases and an estimated price tag, enabling automated correctness checking and a monetary performance valuation. This approach is inspired by OpenAI's recent SWE-Lancer benchmark (1,400 real Upwork tasks worth 1M total). Still, our framework simplifies evaluation using programmatically testable tasks and predicted price values, making it highly scalable and repeatable. On this benchmark, we evaluate four modern LLMs - Claude 3.5 Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, Qwen 2.5, and Mistral. We report each model's accuracy (task success rate and test-case pass rate) and the total "freelance earnings" it achieves (sum of prices of solved tasks). Our results show that Claude 3.5 Haiku performs best, earning approximately 1.52 million USD, followed closely by GPT-4o-mini at 1.49 million, then Qwen 2.5 (1.33M) and Mistral ($0.70M). We analyze the distribution of errors per task and observe that the strongest models solve the most tasks and rarely fail completely on any project. We discuss the implications of these results for the feasibility of AI as a freelance developer, the advantages and limitations of our automated benchmark approach, and the gap between performance on structured tasks versus the true complexity of real-world freelance jobs.

  • 2 authors
·
May 16, 2025 2

Risk Under Pressure: Compute-Aware Evaluation of Adversarial Robustness in Language Models

Adversarial robustness evaluations of large language models (LLMs) typically report attack success rate (ASR) under fixed query budgets, implicitly treating all attacks as equally costly. In practice, the computational expense of different attack strategies can vary by orders of magnitude. Consequently, ASR at a fixed budget can obscure the true effort required to jailbreak a model, thereby making it hard to determine whether an attack's cost justifies its payoff to the attacker. We propose a compute-aware evaluation framework based on computational pressure, measured in cumulative floating-point operations (FLOPs), as a proxy for adversarial effort. We introduce risk-compute curves, which map compute budgets to attack risk, and derive two metrics that summarize the average pressure required for a given attack to succeed. Across ten models spanning three families and four different stages in language model training and alignment, evaluated with three attack strategies (gradient-based, iterative refinement, and template-based) on two jailbreak robustness benchmarks, we find: (1) alignment training has non-monotonic effects on compute-space robustness; (2) scaling model size reduces gradient-based attack effectiveness but has limited impact on cheaper template-based attacks; (3) gradient-based attacks optimized on a surrogate model can transfer to a separate target model, providing a way to reduce attacker costs; (4) compute cost varies by up to {approx}5{times} across harm categories within a single model; and (5) safety-aligned RL increases aggregate cost while leaving some categories disproportionately accessible. We release our framework to enable compute-aware risk assessment and evaluation.

r-three r-three
·
Jun 8 4

Tail-Influence Sampling for CVaR Policy Evaluation

Policies with similar mean returns can differ sharply in rare failures, yet estimating lower-tail conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) accurately can require many costly rollouts. When different conditional components of a stochastic workflow can be queried separately, we ask how to allocate a fixed evaluation budget to estimate a fixed policy's CVaR most accurately. We derive a tail influence for each queryable conditional law that aggregates how its uncertainty affects CVaR across every Bellman reuse. Its variance yields the fixed-design efficiency bound and the oracle Neyman allocation. Tail-Influence Sampling (TIS) estimates these influence scales from a pilot model and reallocates fresh queries toward kernels that matter most for the tail; a visitation-anchored variant protects against pilot underallocation. Under fixed dimension and a positive quantile margin, TIS attains oracle asymptotic variance and first-order MSE including pilot cost, while the anchored variant is within a factor two of the oracle. We also characterize an exact-grid regime in which tail- and mean-optimal allocations coincide. On CliffWalking, TIS reduces MSE by 41% versus learned occupancy and 76% versus complete rollouts at the same charged transition budget. In frozen language-model review workflows, anchored TIS beats an equally regularized mean-influence blend in 23 of 24 MMLU-Pro settings and reaches 2.4-3.4times lower MSE than rollouts on six-call FinQA reviews.

Bridging Compute- and Data-Optimal Pretraining

Classical compute-optimal scaling laws assume an unbounded supply of fresh pretraining data, yet pretraining is increasingly entering a regime in which compute grows faster than the availability of high-quality data. We propose Compute-Data (CD) scaling laws, a unified framework that bridges compute-optimal scaling, where data scales freely with compute, and data-optimal scaling, where the corpus is fixed while compute can grow without bound. CD scaling extends classical scaling laws by introducing a token-effectiveness function, η, which quantifies the value of a derived token-produced, for example, through multi-epoch repetition or paraphrasing-relative to a fresh token, ranging from a perfect substitute to having no value. We fit η for two data-expansion strategies, multi-epoch repetition and paraphrasing, across model sizes from 14M to 600M parameters using the Dolma-3 corpus. We find that token effectiveness is far from constant: it depends jointly on model size, the tokens-per-parameter ratio, and the amount of derived data, and it saturates as the corpus is expanded. The functional form of η implies diminishing returns when substituting compute for data as either model size or data availability increases. It also partitions training into three operational regimes---compute-bound, data-bound, and model-bound---and shows that classical compute-optimal allocation is suboptimal across most practically relevant settings.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 27

No 3D Matrices: A Unified Tensor-Product View of Matrix-Free Cartesian PDE Solvers

Every Cartesian three-dimensional PDE solver hides a structural secret that production CFD codes have used for half a century and that graduate-level textbooks rarely state plainly. The derivative matrices, the compact Padé line solves, the Galerkin mass inversions, the alternating-direction-implicit substeps, and even the fast Poisson and Helmholtz diagonalization transforms all factor along the coordinate axes and collapse into repeated one-dimensional banded kernels executed along the grid lines. The three-dimensional operator exists only on paper; it is never assembled, factored, or stored. This paper is the manual for that collapse. We derive the Kronecker-product algebra that makes it exact, carry it cleanly through central differences, compact schemes, tensor-product Galerkin, B-spline and isogeometric methods, collocation, ADI time stepping, and direct Poisson and Helmholtz solves, and bring into the open the three production tricks that turn the reduction into hardware-conscious floating-point throughput on real machines: the multi-right-hand-side reshape that exposes a sweep as one batched line kernel (a dense BLAS-3 GEMM when the line factor is dense or element-local, a banded or stencil kernel when it is not), the sum factorization that rescues high-order Galerkin from the O(p^{2d}) quadrature trap, and the pencil decomposition that keeps every direction contiguous across an MPI cluster. For fixed stencil width or fixed polynomial degree, the compute cost stays O(N) in the total number of unknowns N = N_x N_y N_z; the operator storage drops to O(N_x + N_y + N_z) up to bandwidth constants; direct separable Poisson and Helmholtz solvers add the expected transform cost; the line kernels are embarrassingly parallel. These facts are familiar to practitioners but rarely assembled in one place; this paper collects them and shows how to use them.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 22

EvoSteer: Online Self-Evolving Graph Orchestration via Reference-Anchored Credit Assignment

In recent years, LLM-based multi-agent systems have been widely applied to orchestrate tool-using agents into executable communication graphs. However, existing self-evolving orchestration still faces key challenges, including post-hoc evolution that revises the team only after the trajectory ends, credit diffusion that gives every action the same terminal advantage under confounded baselines, and skill admission that is uncalibrated and never retired. To address these challenges, we propose EvoSteer, a new paradigm of Online Self-Evolving Graph Orchestration -- the orchestrator builds a running team and repairs its plausible but failing steps from execution features and a learned value estimate. To support this paradigm, we introduce Anchored Trajectory Balance (AnchorTB), a regression-style flow-matching loss that assigns each orchestration action a coefficient by balancing subtrajectories against a frozen reference. Built on the learned flow, we further propose Validated Skill Admission, in which a candidate skill is tried before promotion and promoted only if paired evidence passes a sequential test under a shared nominal testing budget. Moreover, AnchorTB combines measured task-level reference reward statistics with prefix-dependent corrections. Experimental results on twelve datasets show that EvoSteer significantly outperforms baselines across question answering, mathematical reasoning, code generation, and interactive decision making. Our code is available at https://github.com/beita6969/evosteer.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 28

ETS: Efficient Tree Search for Inference-Time Scaling

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a new axis along which to improve model accuracy, where additional computation is used at inference time to allow the model to think longer for more challenging problems. One promising approach for test-time compute scaling is search against a process reward model, where a model generates multiple potential candidates at each step of the search, and these partial trajectories are then scored by a separate reward model in order to guide the search process. The diversity of trajectories in the tree search process affects the accuracy of the search, since increasing diversity promotes more exploration. However, this diversity comes at a cost, as divergent trajectories have less KV sharing, which means they consume more memory and slow down the search process. Previous search methods either do not perform sufficient exploration, or else explore diverse trajectories but have high latency. We address this challenge by proposing Efficient Tree Search (ETS), which promotes KV sharing by pruning redundant trajectories while maintaining necessary diverse trajectories. ETS incorporates a linear programming cost model to promote KV cache sharing by penalizing the number of nodes retained, while incorporating a semantic coverage term into the cost model to ensure that we retain trajectories which are semantically different. We demonstrate how ETS can achieve 1.8times reduction in average KV cache size during the search process, leading to 1.4times increased throughput relative to prior state-of-the-art methods, with minimal accuracy degradation and without requiring any custom kernel implementation. Code is available at: https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/ETS.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 19, 2025

Thought-Level Beam Search for Reasoning

Test-time compute scaling is a primary driver of performance in large reasoning models (LRMs), but extreme inefficiency bounds current approaches, shifting the critical question from how much compute to spend, to where to allocate it. We formalize test-time reasoning as a constrained compute allocation problem over partial trajectories. Under a fixed hardware budget, existing paradigms fail to actively allocate the compute to the most promising partial progress: traditional parallel sampling treats traces independently and induces severe memory bottlenecks, while subtractive pruning starves hardware and fails to actively and sufficiently shift the output distribution. To overcome this dichotomy, we introduce Gambit, an inference algorithm that executes thought-level beam search. By periodically pruning unpromising trajectories and immediately branching from high-quality prefixes, Gambit dynamically concentrates compute onto the most promising reasoning traces via a light-weight scorer probing hidden states while maintaining continuous high hardware utilization. Extensive evaluations across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrate that Gambit strictly dominates existing baselines. Under identical hardware constraints, our method yields up to a +6.7\% absolute accuracy gain on HMMT-24 and +3.3\% on AIME-25 over pruning baselines, delivers >2times higher throughput on trace completion, and reduces total token consumption by up to 68.5\% relative to standard parallel sampling.

LLM Output Drift: Cross-Provider Validation & Mitigation for Financial Workflows

Financial institutions deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) for reconciliations, regulatory reporting, and client communications, but nondeterministic outputs (output drift) undermine auditability and trust. We quantify drift across five model architectures (7B-120B parameters) on regulated financial tasks, revealing a stark inverse relationship: smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency at T=0.0, while GPT-OSS-120B exhibits only 12.5% consistency (95% CI: 3.5-36.0%) regardless of configuration (p<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). This finding challenges conventional assumptions that larger models are universally superior for production deployment. Our contributions include: (i) a finance-calibrated deterministic test harness combining greedy decoding (T=0.0), fixed seeds, and SEC 10-K structure-aware retrieval ordering; (ii) task-specific invariant checking for RAG, JSON, and SQL outputs using finance-calibrated materiality thresholds (plus or minus 5%) and SEC citation validation; (iii) a three-tier model classification system enabling risk-appropriate deployment decisions; and (iv) an audit-ready attestation system with dual-provider validation. We evaluated five models (Qwen2.5-7B via Ollama, Granite-3-8B via IBM watsonx.ai, Llama-3.3-70B, Mistral-Medium-2505, and GPT-OSS-120B) across three regulated financial tasks. Across 480 runs (n=16 per condition), structured tasks (SQL) remain stable even at T=0.2, while RAG tasks show drift (25-75%), revealing task-dependent sensitivity. Cross-provider validation confirms deterministic behavior transfers between local and cloud deployments. We map our framework to Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requirements, demonstrating practical pathways for compliance-ready AI deployments.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 10, 2025

Echoes as Anchors: Probabilistic Costs and Attention Refocusing in LLM Reasoning

Test-time compute allocation in large reasoning models (LRMs) is widely used and has applications in mathematical problem solving, code synthesis, and planning. Recent work has addressed this problem by scaling self-consistency and parallel thinking, adding generic ``thinking tokens'' and prompting models to re-read the question before answering. Unfortunately, these approaches either inject task-agnostic tokens or mandate heuristics that do not explain -- and often ignore -- the spontaneous repetition that many LRMs exhibit at the head of their internal chains. In contrast, we analyze and harness the model's tendency to restate the question, which we term the Echo of Prompt (EOP), as a front-loaded, compute-shaping mechanism. We formalize its probabilistic cost by casting echo removal as rejection-based conditioning and defining the Echo Likelihood Gap ΔL as a computable proxy. This provides the missing theoretical link that links early repetition to likelihood gains and downstream accuracy. However, it does not by itself specify how to exploit EOP. Consequently, we develop Echo-Distilled SFT (ED-SFT) to instill an ``echo-then-reason'' pattern through supervised finetuning, and Echoic Prompting (EP) to re-ground the model mid-trace without training. While promising, quantifying benefits beyond verbosity is non-trivial. Therefore, we conduct length and suffix-controlled likelihood analyses together with layer-wise attention studies, showing that EOP increases answer to answer-prefix attention in middle layers, consistent with an attention refocusing mechanism. We evaluate on GSM8K, MathQA, Hendrycks-MATH, AIME24, and MATH-500 under identical decoding settings and budgets, and find consistent gains over baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/hhh2210/echoes-as-anchors.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 6 2

Anchored Supervised Fine-Tuning

Post-training of large language models involves a fundamental trade-off between supervised fine-tuning (SFT), which efficiently mimics demonstrations but tends to memorize, and reinforcement learning (RL), which achieves better generalization at higher computational cost. Dynamic Fine-Tuning (DFT) recently emerged as a promising middle ground, reweighting SFT objectives with token probabilities and achieving improvements in certain reasoning domains, though it exhibits instability in other tasks. We provide a analysis of DFT through the reward-weighted regression (RWR) framework, revealing that it corresponds to a specific auxiliary distribution choice that yields provably tighter RL bounds than standard SFT. However, our analysis also uncovers a critical limitation: this construction lacks distributional anchoring, leading to progressive drift that undermines training stability. To address this, we propose Anchored Supervised Fine-Tuning (ASFT), which augments DFT's reweighting with lightweight KL regularization to preserve tightness while ensuring stability. Empirically, ASFT consistently outperforms both SFT and DFT across mathematical reasoning, medical knowledge grounding, and code generation, achieving substantial improvements with minimal computational overhead. Our RWR framework provides a systematic lens for understanding post-training methods and demonstrates that principled theoretical analysis leads to both stronger guarantees and practical gains.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 28, 2025

Elucidating the Design Space of FP4 training

The increasing computational demands of foundation models have spurred research into low-precision training, with 4-bit floating-point (FP4) formats emerging as a frontier for maximizing hardware throughput. While numerous techniques have been proposed to stabilize FP4 training, they often present isolated solutions with varying, and not always clear, computational overheads. This paper aims to provide a unified view of the design space of FP4 training. We introduce a comprehensive, quantisation gradient-based framework for microscaling quantization that allows for a theoretical analysis of the computational costs associated with different stabilization methods on both the forward and backward passes. Using a simulator built on this framework, we conduct an extensive empirical study across a wide range of machine learning tasks, including regression, image classification, diffusion models, and language models. By systematically evaluating thousands of combinations of techniques, such as novel gradient approximations, rounding strategies, and scaling methods, we identify which configurations offer the most favourable performance-to-overhead trade-off. We find that the techniques enabling the best trade-off involve carefully combining Hadamard transformations, tensor scaling and stochastic rounding. We further find that using UE5M3 as a scaling factor potentially offers a good compromise between range and precision with manageable computational overhead.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2025

Query as Anchor: Scenario-Adaptive User Representation via Large Language Model

Industrial-scale user representation learning requires balancing robust universality with acute task-sensitivity. However, existing paradigms primarily yield static, task-agnostic embeddings that struggle to reconcile the divergent requirements of downstream scenarios within unified vector spaces. Furthermore, heterogeneous multi-source data introduces inherent noise and modality conflicts, degrading representation. We propose Query-as-Anchor, a framework shifting user modeling from static encoding to dynamic, query-aware synthesis. To empower Large Language Models (LLMs) with deep user understanding, we first construct UserU, an industrial-scale pre-training dataset that aligns multi-modal behavioral sequences with user understanding semantics, and our Q-Anchor Embedding architecture integrates hierarchical coarse-to-fine encoders into dual-tower LLMs via joint contrastive-autoregressive optimization for query-aware user representation. To bridge the gap between general pre-training and specialized business logic, we further introduce Cluster-based Soft Prompt Tuning to enforce discriminative latent structures, effectively aligning model attention with scenario-specific modalities. For deployment, anchoring queries at sequence termini enables KV-cache-accelerated inference with negligible incremental latency. Evaluations on 10 Alipay industrial benchmarks show consistent SOTA performance, strong scalability, and efficient deployment. Large-scale online A/B testing in Alipay's production system across two real-world scenarios further validates its practical effectiveness. Our code is prepared for public release and will be available at: https://github.com/JhCircle/Q-Anchor.

antgroup Ant Group
·
Feb 16 3

Solving Inequality Proofs with Large Language Models

Inequality proving, crucial across diverse scientific and mathematical fields, tests advanced reasoning skills such as discovering tight bounds and strategic theorem application. This makes it a distinct, demanding frontier for large language models (LLMs), offering insights beyond general mathematical problem-solving. Progress in this area is hampered by existing datasets that are often scarce, synthetic, or rigidly formal. We address this by proposing an informal yet verifiable task formulation, recasting inequality proving into two automatically checkable subtasks: bound estimation and relation prediction. Building on this, we release IneqMath, an expert-curated dataset of Olympiad-level inequalities, including a test set and training corpus enriched with step-wise solutions and theorem annotations. We also develop a novel LLM-as-judge evaluation framework, combining a final-answer judge with four step-wise judges designed to detect common reasoning flaws. A systematic evaluation of 29 leading LLMs on IneqMath reveals a surprising reality: even top models like o1 achieve less than 10% overall accuracy under step-wise scrutiny; this is a drop of up to 65.5% from their accuracy considering only final answer equivalence. This discrepancy exposes fragile deductive chains and a critical gap for current LLMs between merely finding an answer and constructing a rigorous proof. Scaling model size and increasing test-time computation yield limited gains in overall proof correctness. Instead, our findings highlight promising research directions such as theorem-guided reasoning and self-refinement. Code and data are available at https://ineqmath.github.io/.

Stanford Stanford AI
·
Jun 9, 2025 2

Geometric Attention: A Regime-Explicit Operator Semantics for Transformer Attention

Geometric Attention (GA) specifies an attention layer by four independent inputs: a finite carrier (what indices are addressable), an evidence-kernel rule (how masked proto-scores and a link induce nonnegative weights), a probe family (which observables are treated as admissible), and an anchor/update rule (which representative kernel is selected and how it is applied). Probe families induce an operational equivalence relation on kernels and therefore a gauge; anchors select representatives relative to that probe. Under a scalar relational-work representation and a multiplicative compositionality law for evidence, the admissible link family is exponential, yielding Gibbs weights; with row anchoring this includes the softmax kernel family as a subregime. After quotienting unary row/column score fields, the remaining interaction component admits a canonical rank-r normal form (Eckart-Young/SVD); dot-product score charts implement the corresponding low-rank interaction regime. Fixing the carrier and extensionalizing the update yields the standard fixed-token Transformer attention operator; allowing carrier updates yields adaptive-carrier and staged-depth regimes. The operator language also supports multihead/mixed kernels, plan-based anchors (e.g., entropic OT/Sinkhorn), and unary operators (e.g., FFN-style fields) as explicit regime choices. This separates invariant structure from modeling choice, enabling principled comparison and extension of attention mechanisms, and attention-based architectures.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 10

Beyond Per-Token Pricing: A Concurrency-Aware Methodology for LLM Infrastructure Cost Estimation

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 9

HipKittens: Fast and Furious AMD Kernels

AMD GPUs offer state-of-the-art compute and memory bandwidth; however, peak performance AMD kernels are written in raw assembly. To address the difficulty of mapping AI algorithms to hardware, recent work proposes C++ embedded and PyTorch-inspired domain-specific languages like ThunderKittens (TK) to simplify high performance AI kernel development on NVIDIA hardware. We explore the extent to which such primitives -- for explicit tile-based programming with optimized memory accesses and fine-grained asynchronous execution across workers -- are NVIDIA-specific or general. We provide the first detailed study of the programming primitives that lead to performant AMD AI kernels, and we encapsulate these insights in the HipKittens (HK) programming framework. We find that tile-based abstractions used in prior DSLs generalize to AMD GPUs, however we need to rethink the algorithms that instantiate these abstractions for AMD. We validate the HK primitives across CDNA3 and CDNA4 AMD platforms. In evaluations, HK kernels compete with AMD's hand-optimized assembly kernels for GEMMs and attention, and consistently outperform compiler baselines. Moreover, assembly is difficult to scale to the breadth of AI workloads; reflecting this, in some settings HK outperforms all available kernel baselines by 1.2-2.4times (e.g., d=64 attention, GQA backwards, memory-bound kernels). These findings help pave the way for a single, tile-based software layer for high-performance AI kernels that translates across GPU vendors. HipKittens is released at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/HipKittens.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 11, 2025 1

Intervention anchors and scientific verification in synthetic vascular predictive representations

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 7

Later Is Better: Token Reduction for ViTs Under Distribution Shift

Training-free token reduction accelerates vision transformers by removing redundant tokens across layers, recovering most of the original accuracy at a fraction of the compute. These methods, however, are designed and evaluated primarily on clean data, and under real-world distribution shift their accuracy gap to the uncompressed model widens with the removal rate. We show that this gap is governed by the reduction schedule, the depth profile of removal, usually left fixed as an implementation detail. Concretely, we introduce a one-parameter late-concentrated power-law schedule that consistently improves out-of-distribution accuracy over flat at no extra inference cost. On ImageNet-C with DeiT-S, the late schedule closes 83% of that gap at a 26% compute reduction (+1.17pp), and 99% of it at a lighter 7% reduction (+0.26pp). The gain cannot be attributed to retaining more tokens or using extra compute: held to flat's compute, the late schedule removes more tokens in total and leaves fewer tokens at the end, yet still wins. Single-layer probes point to a mechanism: earlier reductions perturb features that pass through more remaining layers, front-loading reduction error in depth. The effect is broad, holding across five token-reduction methods (ToMe, EViT, ATS, ATC, PiToMe), nine backbones, all ImageNet-C corruption types, eight further shift suites, and two further modalities, video and vision-language QA. It is also specific to shift, still positive on clean and rising monotonically to ~4x that at the highest severity 5. The schedule keeps its gain under six test-time adaptation methods, and needs no per-input or per-domain tuning.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 5

But How Would AI Agents Run a Town's Economy?

We placed 100 memory-equipped large language model (LLM) agents in charge of a closed, money-conserving spatial economy on real Pokhara Lakeside geography (earning wages, running businesses, setting prices) and ran this multi-agent simulation for up to 26 simulated weeks, well past the 1-2 weeks typical of agent-society studies. Across 91 validated runs (2.44M agent decisions, 21.5B tokens), the money stops moving, in a specific and measurable way. A 12x tourist demand shock raises business revenue 4.62x (p<0.001), which we decompose exactly into a 1.50x extensive margin (more businesses trading) and a 3.07x intensive margin (more revenue each). Monetary transmission stops there. Wages move 1.03x (p=0.42); 0.3% of 3,981 menu items are ever repriced (p=0.47). A randomized cash transfer (NPR 5,000 to 20 of 100 agents) shows the same pattern from the opposite direction: 96.7% is still held 311 pulses later, marginal propensity to consume 3-4% by two independent measures, indistinguishable from zero. The wealth distribution is consequently near-frozen at the horizon this literature uses (ρ=0.964 over 2 simulated weeks), but not frozen. ρ falls to 0.832 at 12 weeks and 0.752 at 26, a horizon-dependence no short study can see. Matched ablations show which knob actually matters. Swapping the backing LLM moves every outcome we measure (p=0.0039); deleting agents' memory moves none of them detectably. A purely social tool fails 94-97% of the time across two model families, compared with ~96% success on economic tools, with no measurable shift away from it. Every headline number is verified twice, by a live validator and by an offline recomputation that reconciles each agent's wealth against its own signed transaction history, and we release the full run corpus for reanalysis.

  • 3 authors
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Sep 9

Token Budgets: An Empirical Catalog of 63 LLM-Agent Budget-Overrun Incidents, with an Affine-Typed Rust Mitigation as a Case Study

LLM-agent budget overruns are a documented production failure class: a single retry loop can spend thousands of dollars before an operator notices, and the in-process integrity properties that would prevent it (no aliasing, no double-spend, no use-after-delegation of a cost-bearing value) are enforced, if at all, by ad-hoc wrappers rather than by the type system. Our central contribution is empirical: a catalog of 63 confirmed production incidents from 21 orchestration frameworks (2023-2026), each backed by a quoted GitHub issue and, where reported, a dollar loss, organized into an eight-cluster failure taxonomy (inter-rater Cohen's kappa = 0.837, N = 113), plus 47 supplementary structural entries. As one mitigation evaluated against this taxonomy, we build token-budgets, an 1,180-line Rust crate (no unsafe) that operationalizes affine ownership so that cloning, double-spending, or using a budget after delegating it are compile errors rather than runtime hazards an operator must remember to avoid. The dollar cap is runtime arithmetic under an estimator assumption; the affine layer makes that arithmetic non-bypassable. On single-agent workloads a 4-line Python counter matches the crate at 0/30 overshoot, so the distinguishing value is non-bypassability under operator error in multi-agent delegation: the delegation-fanout race documented in 11 incidents is rejected by the borrow checker at compile time, while the same pattern under asyncio overshoots 30/30 and three disciplined alternatives overshoot 0/30. Across five runtimes, three providers, and a temperature-stratified live-API test (N = 160), the approach reports zero cap violations and zero false refusals, at operational parity with concurrent work. Static over-reservation is 4-6x (2.11x adaptive). Binary-level cap-soundness on the running binary is left open.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 1 2

Tied Trit-Planes: Constraining PTQTP to a Uniform Nine-Level Quantizer, with a Persistent Folded Format for Disk-Streamed Mixture-of-Experts Serving

PTQTP decomposes LLM weight matrices into two ternary (trit) planes with two free per-group scales. Tying the scales to a fixed ratio of three collapses the decomposition into a single uniform nine-level quantizer, a known balanced-ternary identity. To our knowledge, at the time of writing, this work is the first to impose that identity as a constraint inside PTQTP's solver. The two trit planes then fold losslessly into one 4-bit code plane that we make the persistent serving representation: disk bytes, expert-cache bytes, and kernel input are the same 4.0625-bits/weight blocks, consumed in one integer dot pass. For this conjunction (ratio-3 nine-level code, CPU-SIMD kernels, SSD expert streaming, identical persistent bytes) we likewise found no precedent. We apply this to the routed experts of DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a 284B-A13B mixture-of-experts model, quantizing in one shot from the released MXFP4 expert weights and streaming experts from SSD on a 64 GB laptop. Against a 4.5-bit Q4_K baseline, measured one process per fixture with an expert-lossless anchor arm as reference control, the tied model matches the official serving API on 5/5 fixtures at step 0 (Q4_K: 4/5) and 12/14 captured continuation steps (11/14), scores 86 vs. 84 on a 100-item MMLU subset, decodes 6.7% faster in decode phase, and ships 9% smaller files: no detected fidelity difference at these small evaluation sizes, and every fixture-level difference between the arms traces to a single measured near-tie cell. The tied fit nevertheless shows higher weight-reconstruction error and worse perplexity, a measured dissociation between proxy metrics and reference fidelity. A cumulative trunk-ternarization ladder and bitwise-pinned aarch64/x86-64 kernels complete the report. All code, formats, and evaluation artifacts are open source in the fucina inference stack.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 8

Anchored Answers: Unravelling Positional Bias in GPT-2's Multiple-Choice Questions

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the GPT-4 and LLaMA families, have demonstrated considerable success across diverse tasks, including multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, these models exhibit a positional bias, particularly an even worse anchored bias in the GPT-2 family, where they consistently favour the first choice 'A' in MCQs during inference. This anchored bias challenges the integrity of GPT-2's decision-making process, as it skews performance based on the position rather than the content of the choices in MCQs. In this study, we utilise the mechanistic interpretability approach to identify the internal modules within GPT-2 models responsible for this bias. We focus on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) layers and attention heads, using the "logit lens" method to trace and modify the specific value vectors that contribute to the bias. By updating these vectors within MLP and recalibrating attention patterns to neutralise the preference for the first choice 'A', we effectively mitigate the anchored bias. Our interventions not only mitigate the bias but also improve the overall MCQ prediction accuracy for the GPT-2 family across various datasets. This work represents the first comprehensive mechanistic analysis of anchored bias in MCQs within the GPT-2 models, introducing targeted, minimal-intervention strategies that significantly enhance GPT2 model robustness and accuracy in MCQs. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruizheliUOA/Anchored_Bias_GPT2.

  • 2 authors
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May 6, 2024

The COUNT: Counting N-grams Unlocks Scaling on Host Memory and Training-Free Adaptation

The scaling relationship of compute and performance for language models (LMs) has been extensively studied; more recently, models are being designed to scale memory use, as well. In particular, adding embeddings for n-grams scales memory separately from compute use, because each pass only processes individual embedding rows, which are much smaller than the storage used for the whole embedding table. However, existing methods train embeddings from scratch, which needs expensive GPU memory for fast reading and writing. Meanwhile, the ordinary memory of the host system is cheap and underutilized by these training methods. To scale on host memory, we introduce COUNT (Counting Offline Unlocks N-gram Transformers), which builds n-gram embeddings without adding learned parameters by storing precomputed n-gram counts on host. We use the corpus frequencies to weight together the LM's own unembeddings of the next tokens most often following the current n-gram history. At a fixed compute budget, COUNT can be added as an additional input embedding for pretraining 1B-parameter LMs to improve validation loss as much as an LM with 57% more compute. If GPU memory is limited, using COUNT to let backbone parameters fill GPU memory gives better performance than splitting memory with additional learned n-gram embeddings. Beyond efficiency, COUNT allows switching in a different table of n-gram counts from a domain-specific corpus at inference time to adapt to a new task without any training.

Scaling DoRA: High-Rank Adaptation via Factored Norms and Fused Kernels

Weight-Decomposed Low-Rank Adaptation (DoRA) extends LoRA by decoupling weight magnitude from direction, but its forward pass requires the row-wise norm of W + sBA, a computation that every major framework we surveyed implements by materializing the dense [d_out, d_in] product BA. At d_in = 8192 and rank r = 384, a single module's norm requires about 512 MB of transient working memory in bf16, making high-rank DoRA costly and often infeasible on common single-GPU setups once hundreds of adapted modules and checkpointing are involved. We present two systems contributions. A factored norm decomposes the squared norm into base, cross, and Gram terms computable through O(d_out r + r^2) intermediates, eliminating the dense product. Fused Triton kernels collapse the four-kernel DoRA composition into a single pass, reducing memory traffic by about 4x and using a numerically stable form that avoids catastrophic cancellation in the near-unity rescaling regime where magnitude scales concentrate in practice. Across six 8-32B vision-language models (VLMs) on three NVIDIA GPUs (RTX 6000 PRO, H200, B200) at r = 384 in bf16, the fused implementation is 1.5-2.0x faster than Hugging Face PEFT's DoRA implementation for inference and 1.5-1.9x faster for gradient computation (optimizer step excluded), with up to 7 GB lower peak VRAM. Microbenchmarks on six GPUs spanning four architecture generations (L40S, A100, RTX 6000 PRO, H200, B200, B300) confirm 1.5-2.7x compose-kernel speedup. Final-logit cosine similarity exceeds 0.9999 across all model/GPU pairs, and multi-seed training curves match within 7.1 x 10^-4 mean per-step loss delta over 2000 steps.

  • 2 authors
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Mar 23 2

Agent-ValueBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Evaluating Agent Values

Autonomous agents have rapidly matured as task executors and seen widespread deployment via harnesses such as OpenClaw. Safety concerns have rightly drawn growing research attention, and beneath them lie the values silently steering agent behavior. Existing value benchmarks, however, remain confined to LLMs, leaving agent values largely uncharted. From intuitive, empirical, and theoretical vantage points, we show that an agent's values diverge from those of its underlying LLM, and the agentic modality further introduces dataset-, evaluation-, and system-level challenges absent from text-only protocols. We close this gap with Agent-ValueBench, the first benchmark dedicated to agent values. It features 394 executable environments across 16 domains, offering 4,335 value-conflict tasks that cover 28 value systems and 332 dimensions. Every instance is co-synthesized through our purpose-built end-to-end pipeline and curated per-instance by professional psychologists. Each task ships with two pole-aligned golden trajectories whose checkpoints anchor a trajectory-level rubric-based judge. Benchmarking 14 frontier proprietary and open-weights models across 4 mainstream harnesses, we uncover three concerted findings. Agent values first manifest as a Value Tide of cross-model homogeneity beneath interpretable counter-currents. This tide bends non-additively under harness pull, and yet more decisively under deliberate steering via embedded skills. Together these results signal that the agent-alignment lever is shifting from classical model alignment and prompt steering toward harness alignment and skill steering.

Nautilus Compass: Black-box Persona Drift Detection for Production LLM Agents

Production LLM coding agents drift over long sessions: they forget user-specified constraints, slip into mistakes the user already flagged, and confabulate prior agreements. White-box approaches such as persona vectors require model weights and so cannot be applied to closed APIs (Claude, GPT-4) that most users actually interact with. We present Nautilus Compass, a black-box persona drift detector and agent memory layer for production coding agents. The method operates entirely at the prompt-text layer: cosine similarity between user prompts and behavioral anchor texts, aggregated by a weighted top-k mean using BGE-m3 embeddings. Compass is, to our knowledge, the only public agent memory layer (among Mem0, Letta, Cognee, Zep, MemOS, smrti verified May 2026) that does not call an LLM at index time to extract facts or build a graph; raw conversation text is embedded directly. The system ships as a Claude Code plugin, an MCP 2024-11-05 A2A server (Cursor, Cline, Hermes), a CLI, and a REST API on one daemon, with a Merkle-chained audit log for tamper-evident anchor updates. On a held-out test set built from real Claude Code session traces and labeled by an independent LLM judge, Compass reaches ROC AUC 0.83 for drift detection. The embedded retrieval pipeline scores 56.6% on LongMemEval-S v0.8 and 44.4% on EverMemBench-Dynamic (n=500), topping the four published EverMemBench Table 4 baselines. LongMemEval-S 56.6% is ~30 points below recent white-box leaders (90+%); we treat that as the architectural ceiling of the no-extraction design. End-to-end reproduction cost is $3.50 (~14x cheaper than GPT-4o-judged stacks). A paired cross-vendor behavior A/B accompanies these numbers as preliminary system-level evidence. Code, anchors, frozen test data, and audit-log tooling are MIT-licensed at github.com/chunxiaoxx/nautilus-compass.

  • 1 authors
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May 10

Scaling Verifiable Environments for Long-horizon Work Agents

Work agents operate over digital artifacts to execute professional knowledge-intensive work, requiring training environments that support long-horizon interaction and trustworthy verification. However, hand-crafted environments incur prohibitive engineering overhead that prevents environment scaling, whereas synthesis methods sacrifice workspace complexity, realism, or grounded verifiability. To bridge this gap, we introduce WorkForge, a scalable synthesis framework for constructing verifiable work-agent environments from real-world resources. Starting from expert workflows, WorkForge first identifies the resources, decisions, and deliverables required by each workflow. It then retrieves relevant real-world files and organizes them into a workspace. WorkForge inspects the workspace to extract concrete, checkable facts about its content. These factual anchors fix which task types the workspace can support and how their outcomes can be verified. Therefore, WorkForge derives each task's instructions, solution plan, and complementary programmatic and semantic verifiers directly from these factual anchors, keeping verification traceable to observable workspace evidence. Furthermore, we construct 16.7K verifiable environments across 40 professional domains, with workspaces collectively covering 60 file types. Post-training Qwen3.5-35B-A3B-Base improves GDPVal from 45.5 to 73.6 and APEX Score from 5.0 to 21.3, while enabling Qwen3.5-27B to achieve highly competitive performance and outperform strong competitors. Our analyses confirm the efficacy of the proposed method and reveal consistent scaling behaviors across both data volume and interaction horizons.